{"id":15451495,"url":"https://github.com/davidar/deciban","last_synced_at":"2026-01-16T04:03:56.075Z","repository":{"id":66883522,"uuid":"46041859","full_name":"davidar/deciban","owner":"davidar","description":null,"archived":false,"fork":false,"pushed_at":"2015-11-12T09:17:12.000Z","size":0,"stargazers_count":3,"open_issues_count":0,"forks_count":0,"subscribers_count":4,"default_branch":"master","last_synced_at":"2025-02-09T23:47:54.033Z","etag":null,"topics":[],"latest_commit_sha":null,"homepage":null,"language":null,"has_issues":true,"has_wiki":null,"has_pages":null,"mirror_url":null,"source_name":null,"license":null,"status":null,"scm":"git","pull_requests_enabled":true,"icon_url":"https://github.com/davidar.png","metadata":{"files":{"readme":"README.md","changelog":null,"contributing":null,"funding":null,"license":null,"code_of_conduct":null,"threat_model":null,"audit":null,"citation":null,"codeowners":null,"security":null,"support":null}},"created_at":"2015-11-12T09:13:28.000Z","updated_at":"2016-04-17T01:52:49.000Z","dependencies_parsed_at":"2023-03-08T23:56:40.544Z","dependency_job_id":null,"html_url":"https://github.com/davidar/deciban","commit_stats":null,"previous_names":[],"tags_count":0,"template":false,"template_full_name":null,"repository_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/davidar%2Fdeciban","tags_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/davidar%2Fdeciban/tags","releases_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/davidar%2Fdeciban/releases","manifests_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/davidar%2Fdeciban/manifests","owner_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/owners/davidar","download_url":"https://codeload.github.com/davidar/deciban/tar.gz/refs/heads/master","host":{"name":"GitHub","url":"https://github.com","kind":"github","repositories_count":247190253,"owners_count":20898702,"icon_url":"https://github.com/github.png","version":null,"created_at":"2022-05-30T11:31:42.601Z","updated_at":"2022-07-04T15:15:14.044Z","host_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub","repositories_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories","repository_names_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repository_names","owners_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/owners"}},"keywords":[],"created_at":"2024-10-01T21:26:31.589Z","updated_at":"2026-01-16T04:03:56.048Z","avatar_url":"https://github.com/davidar.png","language":null,"funding_links":[],"categories":[],"sub_categories":[],"readme":"# deciban\n\nThe following table lists a number of rare events, arranged on a **deciban** scale. The deciban is a logarithmic unit \u0026mdash; much like the decibel or the Richter scale \u0026mdash; [introduced by Alan Turing](http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.04714) for expressing probabilities. It is a tenth of a **ban**, which is also known as the base-10 log-odds.\n\n[![](https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/conditional_risk.png)](https://xkcd.com/795/)\n\nPlease note that these are only rough estimates for the purpose of providing intuition for the relative likelihood of various rare events. Many are based on population averages, and do not apply to you personally. As always, keep the above comic in mind ;)\n\n| decibans | event |\n| --------:| ----- |\n|\t0\t|\tYou flip a coin, it lands heads\t|\n|\t-1\t|\t\t|\n|\t-2\t|\t\t|\n|\t-3\t|\t\t|\n|\t-4\t|\t\t|\n|\t-5\t|\tYou flip two coins, they're both heads\t|\n|\t-6\t|\t\t|\n|\t-7\t|\t\t|\n|\t-8\t|\tFlip three coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-9\t|\t\t|\n|\t-10\t|\t\t|\n|\t-11\t|\t\t|\n|\t-12\t|\tFlip four coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-13\t|\t\t|\n|\t-14\t|\t\t|\n|\t-15\t|\tFlip five coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-16\t|\t\t|\n|\t-17\t|\t\t|\n|\t-18\t|\tFlip six coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-19\t|\t\t|\n|\t-20\t|\tYou will die in a road accident\t|\n|\t-21\t|\tFlip seven coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-22\t|\tYou will die from a fall\t|\n|\t-23\t|\t\t|\n|\t-24\t|\tFlip eight coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-25\t|\t\t|\n|\t-26\t|\t\t|\n|\t-27\t|\tFlip nine coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-28\t|\t\t|\n|\t-29\t|\t\t|\n|\t-30\t|\tFlip ten coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-31\t|\tYou will die in a fire\t|\n|\t-32\t|\t\t|\n|\t-33\t|\t\t|\n|\t-34\t|\t\t|\n|\t-35\t|\tYou will die in a natural disaster\t|\n|\t-36\t|\t\t|\n|\t-37\t|\tNext year, an asteroid with destructive power larger than a H-bomb will strike the Earth\t|\n|\t-38\t|\t\t|\n|\t-39\t|\t\t|\n|\t-40\t|\tYou will die of drowning\t|\n|\t-41\t|\t\t|\n|\t-42\t|\t\t|\n|\t-43\t|\tYou will die in an air travel accident\t|\n|\t-44\t|\t\t|\n|\t-45\t|\tFlip 15 coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-46\t|\t\t|\n|\t-47\t|\tNext year, an asteroid impact will cause destruction on national scale\t|\n|\t-48\t|\t\t|\n|\t-49\t|\tYou will be killed by lightning strike\t|\n|\t-50\t|\tYou will be killed by a snake bite or a bee sting\t|\n|\t-51\t|\tYou will be killed by an earthquake\t|\n|\t-52\t|\t\t|\n|\t-53\t|\tNext year, an asteroid impact will cause destruction on a European scale\t|\n|\t-54\t|\t\t|\n|\t-55\t|\t\t|\n|\t-56\t|\t\t|\n|\t-57\t|\tYou will die in a fireworks accident\t|\n|\t-58\t|\tYou're dealt a royal flush in a 5-card poker hand\t|\n|\t-59\t|\tNext year, an asteroid impact will leave many millions dead, and cause global effects\t|\n|\t-60\t|\tFlip 20 coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-61\t|\tNext year, you will be struck by lightning\t|\n|\t-62\t|\t\t|\n|\t-63\t|\t\t|\n|\t-64\t|\t\t|\n|\t-65\t|\t\t|\n|\t-66\t|\t\t|\n|\t-67\t|\t\t|\n|\t-68\t|\t\t|\n|\t-69\t|\t\t|\n|\t-70\t|\t\t|\n|\t-71\t|\t\t|\n|\t-72\t|\tNext year, you will be killed by a cow\t|\n|\t-73\t|\tNext year, an asteroid will kill billions, and cause global climate change\t|\n|\t-74\t|\t\t|\n|\t-75\t|\tFlip 25 coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-76\t|\t\t|\n|\t-77\t|\t\t|\n|\t-78\t|\t\t|\n|\t-79\t|\t\t|\n|\t-80\t|\tNext year, an asteroid will cause the extinction of the human race\t|\n|\t-81\t|\tNext year, you will be killed by a vending machine\t|\n|\t-82\t|\t\t|\n|\t-83\t|\t\t|\n|\t-84\t|\tNext year, you will be killed by a shark\t|\n|\t-85\t|\tYou will die in a rollercoaster accident\t|\n|\t-86\t|\t\t|\n|\t-87\t|\t\t|\n|\t-88\t|\t\t|\n|\t-89\t|\t\t|\n|\t-90\t|\tFlip 30 coins, all heads\t|\n|\t-91\t|\t\t|\n|\t-92\t|\t\t|\n|\t-93\t|\t\t|\n|\t-94\t|\t\t|\n|\t-95\t|\t\t|\n|\t-96\t|\t\t|\n|\t-97\t|\t\t|\n|\t-98\t|\t\t|\n|\t-99\t|\t\t|\n|\t-100\t|\t\t|\n|\t-101\t|\t\t|\n|\t-102\t|\t\t|\n|\t-103\t|\t\t|\n|\t-104\t|\tA billion machines each generate a billion 256-bit hashes per second for 100 million years. There is an accidental collision\t|\n|\t-105\t|\tFlip 35 coins, all heads\t|\n\n## sources\n- http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/Natural_Disasters/impacts.htm\n- http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Engineering_Technology/NEO/Impact_consequences\n- http://www.livescience.com/3780-odds-dying.html\n- http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/odds.shtml\n- http://www.asktheodds.com/death/roller-coaster-odds/\n- https://web.archive.org/web/20120622140117/http://bookofodds.com/Accidents-Death/Accidental-Deaths/Articles/A0007-Sharks-or-Vending-Machines-Which-is-Deadlier\n- http://tierneylab.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/31/dangerous-cows/?_r=0\n- http://www.nsc.org/NSC%20Images_Corporate/odds-of-dying-graphic.jpg\n- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_attack\n","project_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/projects/github.com%2Fdavidar%2Fdeciban","html_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/projects/github.com%2Fdavidar%2Fdeciban","lists_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/projects/github.com%2Fdavidar%2Fdeciban/lists"}