{"id":17224284,"url":"https://github.com/ekstroem/euro2020","last_synced_at":"2026-02-14T07:31:53.223Z","repository":{"id":90094033,"uuid":"273252434","full_name":"ekstroem/euro2020","owner":"ekstroem","description":"Predicting the Euro 2020 football winnders","archived":false,"fork":false,"pushed_at":"2020-06-19T01:21:43.000Z","size":4,"stargazers_count":3,"open_issues_count":0,"forks_count":1,"subscribers_count":1,"default_branch":"master","last_synced_at":"2025-10-10T15:36:03.015Z","etag":null,"topics":[],"latest_commit_sha":null,"homepage":null,"language":null,"has_issues":true,"has_wiki":null,"has_pages":null,"mirror_url":null,"source_name":null,"license":null,"status":null,"scm":"git","pull_requests_enabled":true,"icon_url":"https://github.com/ekstroem.png","metadata":{"files":{"readme":"README.Rmd","changelog":null,"contributing":null,"funding":null,"license":null,"code_of_conduct":null,"threat_model":null,"audit":null,"citation":null,"codeowners":null,"security":null,"support":null,"governance":null,"roadmap":null,"authors":null,"dei":null,"publiccode":null,"codemeta":null}},"created_at":"2020-06-18T13:56:08.000Z","updated_at":"2021-06-09T16:34:34.000Z","dependencies_parsed_at":null,"dependency_job_id":"552b6270-ccbc-468c-821d-e2e8d3b555cc","html_url":"https://github.com/ekstroem/euro2020","commit_stats":null,"previous_names":[],"tags_count":0,"template":false,"template_full_name":null,"purl":"pkg:github/ekstroem/euro2020","repository_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/ekstroem%2Feuro2020","tags_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/ekstroem%2Feuro2020/tags","releases_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/ekstroem%2Feuro2020/releases","manifests_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/ekstroem%2Feuro2020/manifests","owner_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/owners/ekstroem","download_url":"https://codeload.github.com/ekstroem/euro2020/tar.gz/refs/heads/master","sbom_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/ekstroem%2Feuro2020/sbom","scorecard":null,"host":{"name":"GitHub","url":"https://github.com","kind":"github","repositories_count":286080680,"owners_count":29439500,"icon_url":"https://github.com/github.png","version":null,"created_at":"2022-05-30T11:31:42.601Z","updated_at":"2026-02-14T07:24:13.446Z","status":"ssl_error","status_checked_at":"2026-02-14T07:23:58.969Z","response_time":53,"last_error":"SSL_read: unexpected eof while reading","robots_txt_status":"success","robots_txt_updated_at":"2025-07-24T06:49:26.215Z","robots_txt_url":"https://github.com/robots.txt","online":false,"can_crawl_api":true,"host_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub","repositories_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories","repository_names_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repository_names","owners_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/owners"}},"keywords":[],"created_at":"2024-10-15T04:10:41.930Z","updated_at":"2026-02-14T07:31:53.201Z","avatar_url":"https://github.com/ekstroem.png","language":null,"funding_links":[],"categories":[],"sub_categories":[],"readme":"# euro2020 (make that 2021)\n\nPrediction competition for the Euro 2020 football winners from eRum 2020. \n\nThe slides from the talk can be [found here](https://biostatistics.dk/talks/eRum2020/pred.pdf).\n\n## Competition rules\n\nTo participate in the competition you need to upload a $7 \\times 24$\nprediction matrix. The 24 columns represent the 24 teams and the 7\nrows represent the 7 different ranks that can be determined from the\ntournament: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th-8th, 9th-16th, 17th-24th.\n\nThe prediction matrix should be uploaded here as a PULL REQUEST of an\nR matrix object that can be read by `load()` on R v4.0.0 or higher.\n\nThe **order** of the columns (the 24 teams) will be provided here\nafter the final play-off match in November 2020. Then we know the\nnames of all the 24 teams.\n\nThe **elements** of the prediction matrix should be the probabilities\nthat the given country (column) will obtain a specific\nrank. Consequently, all columns must sum to 1.\n\nThe rows of the prediction matrix must sum to `c(1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 8,\n8)`, respectively. These numbers represent the number of teams that\ncan be part of each rank.\n\nThe **deadline** for submission i Sunday June 6th, 2021 at midnight CET.\n\n\n## Determining the winner\n\nWe will use the Tournament Rank Probability Score (TRPS) to determine\nthe best tournament prediction.\n\nThe TRPS is defined in [this paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.07364) and implemented in the `socceR` package which can be installed from CRAN:\n\n\n```{r eval=FALSE}\ninstall.packages(\"socceR\")\n```\n\nSmaller numbers represents better predictions.\n\n```{r}\nlibrary(\"socceR\")\nm1 \u003c- matrix(c(1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, .5, .5, 0, 0, .5, .5), 4)\nm1 # Prediction where certain on the top 2 ranks\ntrps(m1, c(1, 2, 3, 4))\n```\n\n\n## How to model the tournament results\n\nYou are free to model the tournament results in any way you want. You\ncan even conjure them up. Run a complicated random forest model. Or\nmake educated armchair guesses. All that counts is the 7 x 24 matrix.\n\n\n## Summarizing\n\nHopefully we can summarize some of the approaches on eRum 2022. In any case we will have updates and the winner listed here on GitHub.","project_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/projects/github.com%2Fekstroem%2Feuro2020","html_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/projects/github.com%2Fekstroem%2Feuro2020","lists_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/projects/github.com%2Fekstroem%2Feuro2020/lists"}