{"id":28702927,"url":"https://github.com/epiforecasts/simplified-forecaster-evaluation","last_synced_at":"2026-03-07T08:02:10.024Z","repository":{"id":46751234,"uuid":"493300571","full_name":"epiforecasts/simplified-forecaster-evaluation","owner":"epiforecasts","description":"Evaluation of a simplified forecasting model designed to emulate the performance of the ECDC forecasting hub.","archived":false,"fork":false,"pushed_at":"2023-01-09T10:18:24.000Z","size":72041,"stargazers_count":5,"open_issues_count":1,"forks_count":0,"subscribers_count":5,"default_branch":"main","last_synced_at":"2025-11-09T09:12:16.523Z","etag":null,"topics":["covid-19","ensemble","evaluation","forecast-hub","forecasting","github-actions"],"latest_commit_sha":null,"homepage":"https://epiforecasts.io/simplified-forecaster-evaluation/paper.pdf","language":"TeX","has_issues":true,"has_wiki":null,"has_pages":null,"mirror_url":null,"source_name":null,"license":"mit","status":null,"scm":"git","pull_requests_enabled":true,"icon_url":"https://github.com/epiforecasts.png","metadata":{"files":{"readme":"README.md","changelog":null,"contributing":null,"funding":null,"license":"LICENSE.md","code_of_conduct":null,"threat_model":null,"audit":null,"citation":null,"codeowners":null,"security":null,"support":null}},"created_at":"2022-05-17T15:03:49.000Z","updated_at":"2025-07-17T12:44:00.000Z","dependencies_parsed_at":"2023-02-08T10:01:45.495Z","dependency_job_id":null,"html_url":"https://github.com/epiforecasts/simplified-forecaster-evaluation","commit_stats":null,"previous_names":[],"tags_count":1,"template":false,"template_full_name":"epiforecasts/eval-germany-sp-nowcasting","purl":"pkg:github/epiforecasts/simplified-forecaster-evaluation","repository_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/epiforecasts%2Fsimplified-forecaster-evaluation","tags_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/epiforecasts%2Fsimplified-forecaster-evaluation/tags","releases_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/epiforecasts%2Fsimplified-forecaster-evaluation/releases","manifests_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/epiforecasts%2Fsimplified-forecaster-evaluation/manifests","owner_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/owners/epiforecasts","download_url":"https://codeload.github.com/epiforecasts/simplified-forecaster-evaluation/tar.gz/refs/heads/main","sbom_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/epiforecasts%2Fsimplified-forecaster-evaluation/sbom","scorecard":null,"host":{"name":"GitHub","url":"https://github.com","kind":"github","repositories_count":286080680,"owners_count":30209796,"icon_url":"https://github.com/github.png","version":null,"created_at":"2022-05-30T11:31:42.601Z","updated_at":"2026-03-07T05:23:27.321Z","status":"ssl_error","status_checked_at":"2026-03-07T05:00:17.256Z","response_time":53,"last_error":"SSL_read: unexpected eof while reading","robots_txt_status":"success","robots_txt_updated_at":"2025-07-24T06:49:26.215Z","robots_txt_url":"https://github.com/robots.txt","online":false,"can_crawl_api":true,"host_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub","repositories_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories","repository_names_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repository_names","owners_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/owners"}},"keywords":["covid-19","ensemble","evaluation","forecast-hub","forecasting","github-actions"],"created_at":"2025-06-14T13:05:54.022Z","updated_at":"2026-03-07T08:02:09.999Z","avatar_url":"https://github.com/epiforecasts.png","language":"TeX","funding_links":[],"categories":[],"sub_categories":[],"readme":"# Evaluating an epidemiologically motivated surrogate model of a multi-model ensemble\n\nThis repository contains the documentation, results, and code of a project evaluating a simplified forecasting model in comparison the European forecasting hub ensemble. See the documentation for further details. \n\n## Citation\n\nPlease cite this using the following:\n\n\u003e Abbott, Sherratt, Bosse, Gruson, Bracher, and Funk. 2022 “Evaluating an Epidemiologically Motivated Surrogate Model of a Multi-Model Ensemble.” medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.10.12.22280917.\n\n```\n@UNPUBLISHED{Abbott_undated-tu,\n  title   = \"Evaluating an epidemiologically motivated surrogate model of a\n             multi-model ensemble\",\n  author  = \"{Abbott} and {Sherratt} and {Bosse} and {Gruson} and {Bracher} and\n             {Funk}\",\n  journal = \"medRxiv\",\n  year    = 2022,\n  doi     = \"10.1101/2022.10.12.22280917\"\n}\n```\n\n## Project structure\n\nFolder | Purpose\n---|---\n[`ecdc-weekly-growth-forecasts`](ecdc-weekly-growth-forecasts/) | The code for the simplified forecasting model evaluated in this work.\n[`data-raw`](data-raw/) | Raw input data and scripts required to download and process it.\n[`data`](data/) | Processed data from `data-raw` ready to be used in the paper analysis.\n[`R`](R/) | R functions used in the analysis and for evaluation.\n[`paper`](paper/) | Summary paper and additional supplementary information as `Rmarkdown` documents.\n[`.github`](.github/) | GitHub actions used to build the docker image and render and publish the analysis paper.\n[`.devcontainer`](.devcontainer/) | Resources for reproducibility using `vscode` and `docker`.\n\n## Dependencies\n\nDependencies are managed using [`renv`](https://rstudio.github.io/renv/).\n\nAlternatively a docker [container](https://github.com/epiforecasts/simplfied-forecaster-evaluation/blob/main/.devcontainer/Dockerfile) and [image](https://github.com/epiforecasts/simplfied-forecaster-evaluation/pkgs/container/simplfied-forecaster-evaluation) is provided. An easy way to make use of this is using the Remote development extension of `vscode`.\n\n## Reproducibility\n\nOnce all dependencies are installed (see above) the paper analysis can be rerun using `paper/paper.Rmd` either interactively or rerendered as a document using `Rmarkdown`. To make this step easier we also provide a GitHub action to publish an updated version of the analysis to the `gh-pages` branch. \n\nSee `data-raw` for the code to re-extract forecasts and truth data, create metadata, normalise by population, and score forecasts against truth data. All steps of this process can be done automatically using `data-raw/update.sh`. Results from these steps will be stored in `data` as `.csv` files.","project_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/projects/github.com%2Fepiforecasts%2Fsimplified-forecaster-evaluation","html_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/projects/github.com%2Fepiforecasts%2Fsimplified-forecaster-evaluation","lists_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/projects/github.com%2Fepiforecasts%2Fsimplified-forecaster-evaluation/lists"}