{"id":18023065,"url":"https://github.com/microprediction/microactors","last_synced_at":"2025-03-26T23:30:59.178Z","repository":{"id":107303553,"uuid":"322972334","full_name":"microprediction/microactors","owner":"microprediction","description":"Examples of scheduled jobs estimating copulas at www.microprediction.org","archived":false,"fork":false,"pushed_at":"2022-10-24T18:41:15.000Z","size":43,"stargazers_count":4,"open_issues_count":0,"forks_count":13,"subscribers_count":2,"default_branch":"main","last_synced_at":"2025-03-25T03:12:58.585Z","etag":null,"topics":["copula","copula-entropy","copula-models","copulas","timeseries","timeseries-analysis","timeseries-database","timeseries-forecasting","timeseries-prediction","timeseries-sequence"],"latest_commit_sha":null,"homepage":"http://www.microprediction.org","language":"Python","has_issues":true,"has_wiki":null,"has_pages":null,"mirror_url":null,"source_name":null,"license":"mit","status":null,"scm":"git","pull_requests_enabled":true,"icon_url":"https://github.com/microprediction.png","metadata":{"files":{"readme":"README.md","changelog":null,"contributing":null,"funding":null,"license":"LICENSE","code_of_conduct":null,"threat_model":null,"audit":null,"citation":null,"codeowners":null,"security":null,"support":null,"governance":null}},"created_at":"2020-12-20T01:39:06.000Z","updated_at":"2023-03-27T16:34:43.000Z","dependencies_parsed_at":"2023-03-14T23:15:42.974Z","dependency_job_id":null,"html_url":"https://github.com/microprediction/microactors","commit_stats":null,"previous_names":[],"tags_count":0,"template":false,"template_full_name":null,"repository_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/microprediction%2Fmicroactors","tags_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/microprediction%2Fmicroactors/tags","releases_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/microprediction%2Fmicroactors/releases","manifests_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/microprediction%2Fmicroactors/manifests","owner_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/owners/microprediction","download_url":"https://codeload.github.com/microprediction/microactors/tar.gz/refs/heads/main","host":{"name":"GitHub","url":"https://github.com","kind":"github","repositories_count":245753863,"owners_count":20666827,"icon_url":"https://github.com/github.png","version":null,"created_at":"2022-05-30T11:31:42.601Z","updated_at":"2022-07-04T15:15:14.044Z","host_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub","repositories_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories","repository_names_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repository_names","owners_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/owners"}},"keywords":["copula","copula-entropy","copula-models","copulas","timeseries","timeseries-analysis","timeseries-database","timeseries-forecasting","timeseries-prediction","timeseries-sequence"],"created_at":"2024-10-30T07:07:06.250Z","updated_at":"2025-03-26T23:30:58.866Z","avatar_url":"https://github.com/microprediction.png","language":"Python","funding_links":[],"categories":[],"sub_categories":[],"readme":"\n# What it does\n\n1. Tests open source copulas package against real data, by submitting to www.microprediction.org\n\n# How you use this repository \n\n1. Fork it \n2. Open up [this notebook](https://github.com/microprediction/microactors/blob/main/New_Key.ipynb) in colab and run it to generate yourself a write key. \n3. Save the key as a Github secret called WRITE_KEY ([instructions](https://www.google.com/search?q=how+to+create+a+github+secret))\n4. Click on \"accept\" when Github asks you if you want to enable github actions. Go to Actions and you'll see the only action used\nin your repo (like [this one](https://github.com/microprediction/microactors/blob/main/.github/workflows/submit.yml)). You should be able to enable it. \n\n\nThat's all. Later, go to www.microprediction.org and plug your write key into the dashboard. You'll see something like this, eventually. \n\n![](https://i.imgur.com/uwttTku.png)\n\n\nIf you are curious about step 2, see [instructions](https://www.microprediction.com/private-keys) for other ways, and a cheesy video explaining that a WRITE_KEY is a Memorable Unique Identifier.\n\nIf you'd rather not fork, just copy [fit.py](https://github.com/microprediction/microactors/blob/main/fit.py) and [daily.yml](https://github.com/microprediction/microactors/blob/main/.github/workflows/daily.yml) as that's pretty much it. \n\n## Do you like fitting multivariate densities or Copulas? \n\nModify your fit.py (similar to [fit.py](https://github.com/microprediction/microactors/blob/main/fit.py) provided). For example you can change the\nchoice of Copula, or use an entirely different technique. The only important thing is that you spit out 225 \"scenarios\". \n\n## New to [microprediction.org](www.microprediction.org)? \nHere's what's up:\n\n- Anyone can publish live data repeatedly, [like this](https://github.com/microprediction/microprediction/blob/master/feed_examples_live/traffic_live.py) say, and it\n creates a stream like [this one](https://www.microprediction.org/stream_dashboard.html?stream=electricity-load-nyiso-overall).\n- Some github repos like this one make regular predictions (there are also some algorithms like [this guy](https://github.com/microprediction/microprediction/blob/master/crawler_examples/soshed_boa.py) that use running processes instead)\n\n## Why? \nFree prediction for all means free bespoke business optimization for all.  \n\n - Yes it really is an [api](http://api.microprediction.org/) that predicts anything.\n - Yes it also makes it easier to see which R, Julia and Python time series approaches seem to work best, saving you from\n  trying out [hundreds of packages](https://www.microprediction.com/blog/popular-timeseries-packages) from PyPI and github, any one of which might be of uncertain quality. \n  \n## More background if you want it...\n  \nHere's a [first glimpse](https://www.microprediction.com/welcome) for the uninitiated, some [categories of business application](https://www.microprediction.com/welcome-3), some remarks\non why [microprediction is synomymous with AI](https://www.microprediction.com/welcome-4) due to the possibility of value function prediction, and a straightforward\n[plausibility argument](https://www.microprediction.com/welcome-2) for why an open source, openly networked collection of algorithms that \nare perfectly capable of [managing each other](https://www.microprediction.com/welcome-5) will sooner or later eclipse all other modes of production\nof prediction. In order to try to get this idea off the ground, there are some ongoing [competitions](https://www.microprediction.com/competitions) and developer incentives. \n    \n## Video tutorials...\n    \nVideo tutorials are available at https://www.microprediction.com/python-1 to help you\nget started. \n    \n## Presentations\n\nPresentations at Rutgers, MIT and elsewhere can be found in the [presentations](https://github.com/microprediction/micropresentations) repo. A book will be \npublished by MIT Press in 2021 on the topic. There are links to video presentations in some of the [blog](https://www.microprediction.com/blog) articles. \n\n\n \n## This repository \n\nNow, back to this repo. \n\n - It's minimalist and simple. \n - It shows you how to make predictions using Github actions. \n - It fits z-streams only. \n\nThat's all. \n\n## Aside: What are z-streams? \n\nGlad you asked. See [An Introduction to Z-Streams](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/short-introduction-z-streams-peter-cotton-phd/) or the\nmicroprediction [frequently asked questions](https://www.microprediction.com/faq). Put simply, some of the\nseemingly univariate time series such as [this one](https://www.microprediction.org/stream_dashboard.html?stream=z2~copula_x~copula_y~70) are\nreally multi-variate implied copulas. You can retrieve them in multivariate\nformat using the `.get_lagged_copulas` or `.get_lagged_zvalues` methods of the [MicroReader](https://github.com/microprediction/microprediction/blob/master/microprediction/reader.py). \n\n## Aside: Why does it only fit z-streams and not the other ones?\n\nThe z-stream distributions don't change as quickly as the values themselves. \n\n## Install\n\nIf you grepped for 'install' ...\n\n    This repo isn't intended to be used as a package. \n    \nGo back to the top of this readme. \n    \n\n","project_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/projects/github.com%2Fmicroprediction%2Fmicroactors","html_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/projects/github.com%2Fmicroprediction%2Fmicroactors","lists_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/projects/github.com%2Fmicroprediction%2Fmicroactors/lists"}