{"id":15822907,"url":"https://github.com/sambacha/eth-validator","last_synced_at":"2026-05-20T05:37:35.963Z","repository":{"id":193672390,"uuid":"689280796","full_name":"sambacha/eth-validator","owner":"sambacha","description":"mevETH Worst Case Analysis Profitability","archived":false,"fork":false,"pushed_at":"2023-09-16T10:55:12.000Z","size":4751,"stargazers_count":1,"open_issues_count":0,"forks_count":0,"subscribers_count":2,"default_branch":"master","last_synced_at":"2025-07-25T06:35:50.946Z","etag":null,"topics":["ethereum","liquid-staking","lsd","no-finanical-advice","staking","wip"],"latest_commit_sha":null,"homepage":"","language":"Python","has_issues":true,"has_wiki":null,"has_pages":null,"mirror_url":null,"source_name":null,"license":null,"status":null,"scm":"git","pull_requests_enabled":true,"icon_url":"https://github.com/sambacha.png","metadata":{"files":{"readme":"README.md","changelog":null,"contributing":null,"funding":null,"license":"LICENSE.spdx","code_of_conduct":null,"threat_model":null,"audit":null,"citation":null,"codeowners":null,"security":null,"support":null,"governance":null,"roadmap":null,"authors":null,"dei":null,"publiccode":null,"codemeta":null}},"created_at":"2023-09-09T10:14:41.000Z","updated_at":"2023-09-27T06:35:28.000Z","dependencies_parsed_at":"2023-09-09T11:28:51.393Z","dependency_job_id":"cc4d11c0-62fd-45a3-97ba-5efe3bfffec6","html_url":"https://github.com/sambacha/eth-validator","commit_stats":{"total_commits":7,"total_committers":1,"mean_commits":7.0,"dds":0.0,"last_synced_commit":"9867b209986c90188f6d1e2478bb484fdc6bb181"},"previous_names":["sambacha/eth-validator"],"tags_count":3,"template":false,"template_full_name":null,"purl":"pkg:github/sambacha/eth-validator","repository_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/sambacha%2Feth-validator","tags_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/sambacha%2Feth-validator/tags","releases_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/sambacha%2Feth-validator/releases","manifests_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/sambacha%2Feth-validator/manifests","owner_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/owners/sambacha","download_url":"https://codeload.github.com/sambacha/eth-validator/tar.gz/refs/heads/master","sbom_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories/sambacha%2Feth-validator/sbom","host":{"name":"GitHub","url":"https://github.com","kind":"github","repositories_count":268316046,"owners_count":24231068,"icon_url":"https://github.com/github.png","version":null,"created_at":"2022-05-30T11:31:42.601Z","updated_at":"2022-07-04T15:15:14.044Z","status":"online","status_checked_at":"2025-08-01T02:00:08.611Z","response_time":67,"last_error":null,"robots_txt_status":"success","robots_txt_updated_at":"2025-07-24T06:49:26.215Z","robots_txt_url":"https://github.com/robots.txt","online":true,"can_crawl_api":true,"host_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub","repositories_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repositories","repository_names_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/repository_names","owners_url":"https://repos.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/hosts/GitHub/owners"}},"keywords":["ethereum","liquid-staking","lsd","no-finanical-advice","staking","wip"],"created_at":"2024-10-05T08:01:46.573Z","updated_at":"2026-05-20T05:37:30.927Z","avatar_url":"https://github.com/sambacha.png","language":"Python","funding_links":[],"categories":[],"sub_categories":[],"readme":"# Approximating MEV Boost Performance for mevETH\n\n\n\u003e**Note**    \n\u003e Disclaimer: NO FINANCIAL ADVICE \n\n    The Information on this Post is provided\n    for education and informational purposes only, without any express or implied\n    warranty of any kind, including warranties of accuracy, completeness, or\n    fitness for any particular purpose. The Information contained in or provided\n    from or through this application/website is not intended to be and does not constitute\n    financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice. The\n    Information on this application/website and provided from or through this service is\n    general in nature and is not specific to you the User or anyone else. You\n    should not make any decision, financial, investment, trading or otherwise,\n    based on any of the information presented on this website without undertaking\n    independent due diligence and consultation with a professional broker or\n    financial advisory.\n\n\n\u003e**Warning**     \n\u003e This is a vastly simplified model to articulate an initial benchmark extrapolation without consideration for multi-block MEV, certain additional protocol related rewards, and only using data\nfrom one day's worth of blocks to use values. A more accurate model would have sampled more than just one day's worth of block rewards.\n\n### Assumptions \n\nNo change in active validator set or total staked eth over the given time period\n\nFor a given validator, (its effective balance) / (total staked eth) is a good estimate of block proposal opportunity PER BLOCK. This appears to be true. (Further thoughts:) Within the ETH2 phase 0 specification, when searching for a block's proposer, a shuffled list of active validators is iterated through. Each validator's effective balance influences the chances of that validator being chosen. But, the effective balances of the other validators are important as well because if you are at shuffled position X, validator at (shuffled) index say X minus 5's chances of being chosen as also influenced by that validator's effective balance.\n\n If a validator before you in the shuffled index is chosen, you would not be considered. In simulations, I find (its effective balance) / (total staked eth) to provide a reasonable estimate of a validator's chance of being chosen to propose any given block. If all active validators have equal (say 32 eth) effective balance, then this simplifies to 1/(total active validators). But the latter would not attempt to account for the rest of the validators' effective balance's influence directly and indirectly on a given validator's chances.\n\nPrice of ETH in USD: 1634.63\n\nStaking Fee = 7.000000000000001 %\nNetwork Stake= 24960000\n\nReference Calculator: https://beaconcha.in/calculator\nData used provided by: https://flashbots-data.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/index.html\n\n    2.47 MB  2023-05-08T13:36:59.000Z  block-summary/daily/block_data_may_7_2023.csv     \n\n    SHA256SUM: faff26b8e1132f3fc0356894a2068c127693a4e8042755ccae28ae5b849c3c22\n\n## Overview\n\nWe take a block data and extrapolate based on  blocks rewards the breakdown of MEV rewards for Validators.\n\nWe break down MEV rewards into  two categories: \n\n- \"Big Lottery\" That is the reward probability of an amount of MEV rewards at most one a day.\n- \"Little Lottery\" That is the reward probability of an amount of MEV Rewards with a similar probability of the total amount of validators in the staking pool's hourly probability of creating a block (i.e. proposing).\n\n\n## Calculation\n\nNote that one epoch has a duration of 12*32 seconds so there are:\n86,400 seconds in a day \n225 epochs in a day:\n6750 epochs every 30 days.\n7,200 Blocks Per Day \n\n\n29.39% per hour\n98.44% every 12 hours\n\n3,060 Blocks per year (WCS)\n2,592 (Worst that Worst Case)\n\n### Non MEV Rewards (ETH2 Protocol Rewards, Simplified)\nNb Validators Median\tMedian   APY Average\tAverage APY\n780,000\t      1.2332\t 3.85%\t 1.52\t        4.75%\n\nAverage occurrences: ≈ 228.43\nMinimum occurrences: 188\nMaximum occurrences: 271\nMedian occurrences: 229\nWSC occurrences: 255\n\n24960000 ≈ 20.40 %\n27534119.899005\n\n\n32.34268189\n0.1847672284\n\n7,113\n\n### Big Lottery Blocks\nBig Lottery Blocks = 1 a day\n\n276 = 2.134182044 ETH\n0.03888888888 %\nAverage occurrences: ≈ 28.00\nMinimum occurrences: 7\nMaximum occurrences: 60\nMedian occurrences: 28\nThis means that, with this adjusted hourly probability, you can expect the event to occur about 28 times over a 30-day period, based on our simulations. The observed occurrences in the simulations ranged from a minimum of 7 to a maximum of 60.\n\n\n#### Little Lottery Blocks\n\nLittle Lottery Blocks = 7 a day\n\nFor Blocks with over \u003e 0.3 ETH \n2,139 Blocks\n1,509 ETH Total\n0.70546984572 AVG\n\n2139 = 0.70546984572 AVG ETH\n2139 per day is 0.30071699704 %\nAverage occurrences: ≈ 216.52\nMinimum occurrences: 155\nMaximum occurrences: 282\nMedian occurrences: 216\nWith this adjusted hourly probability, we can expect the event to occur, on average, about 216 to 217 times over a 30-day period based on our simulations. The observed occurrences in the simulations ranged from a minimum of 155 to a maximum of 282.\n\n\n## Summary\n\n\u003e ~ 0.140 ETH Per Block on Average WCS-ish\n\n\n| Duration | ETH Stake                       | ETH Reward                  | Return       | Return in % |\n|----------|---------------------------------|-----------------------------|--------------|-------------|\n| Day      | 28802.4412 ETH ($4 7081 334.51) | 2.4412 ETH ($3 990.51)      | $3 206.27    | 0.01 %      |\n\n\n| Week     | 28817.0870 ETH ($4 7105 274.88) | 17.0870 ETH ($27 930.88)    | $22 441.46   | 0.05 %      |\n| Month    | 28875.6421 ETH ($4 7200 990.87) | 75.6421 ETH ($123 646.87)   | $99 340.11   | 0.21 %      |\n| Year     | 29685.7724 ETH ($4 8525 254.06) | 885.7724 ETH ($1447 910.06) | $1162 314.68 | 2.47 %      |\n\n### Results\n\n![](./assets/results.png)\n\n64.02546132 Monthly Big Lottery (in ETH)     \n148.1486676 Monthly Little Lottery (in ETH)     \n2,546.089547 Yearly Combined (in ETH)     \n4,161,914.356 USD ETH in MEV Rewards     \n\n\n![](./assets/tarantino-reject.gif)\n\n\n$5,324,229.036 USD ETH in Total Rewards Per Stated Assumptions     \n\n","project_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/projects/github.com%2Fsambacha%2Feth-validator","html_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/projects/github.com%2Fsambacha%2Feth-validator","lists_url":"https://awesome.ecosyste.ms/api/v1/projects/github.com%2Fsambacha%2Feth-validator/lists"}