https://github.com/SoslyLW/SportsOdds

A Pythagorean win expectation-based Monte Carlo simulator to determine the odds of NHL teams making the playoffs.
https://github.com/SoslyLW/SportsOdds

Last synced: about 2 months ago
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A Pythagorean win expectation-based Monte Carlo simulator to determine the odds of NHL teams making the playoffs.

• Host: GitHub
• URL: https://github.com/SoslyLW/SportsOdds
• Owner: SoslyLW
• Created: 2020-11-12T21:14:43.000Z (almost 4 years ago)
• Default Branch: main
• Last Pushed: 2024-01-03T20:05:50.000Z (9 months ago)
• Last Synced: 2024-06-01T14:34:41.291Z (4 months ago)
• Language: C++
• Homepage:
• Size: 3.94 MB
• Stars: 3
• Watchers: 1
• Forks: 1
• Open Issues: 0
• Metadata Files:
  • Readme: README.md

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README

        
# NHL Playoff Odds Calculator

A Pythagorean win expectation-based Monte Carlo simulator to determine the odds of NHL teams making the playoffs. Inspired by [sportsclubstats.com](sportsclubstats.com).

Using [Pythagorean win expectation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation) and the [log5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log5) mathematical formula, this 

program simulates individual seasons of the 2022-2023 NHL season and keeps track of how many times teams make the playoffs. Instead of determining every possible 

combination, a technique called the [Monte Carlo method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method) is used to extrapolate random results to meaningful 

conclusions. The more trials are run, the more accurate the results.

**Pre-ran simulations from *2023-01-04* can be found in the *Results* folder if you do not want to run an intesive 100,000+ trial simulation yourself. The number of trials for each run is indicated in the filename.**

Performance varies by CPU *and has been vastly improved since 2023-10-13*. I was able to run at ~263 seasons/sec on my laptop with an i7-1260P. Generally, selecting simulation sizes < 20,000 should run fairly quickly.

Trial size can be changed upon starting the program and defaults to 1,000 seasons if no input is received.

Data is acquired from [Sports Reference](https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2024_games.html).