https://github.com/adibender/coalitions

Coalition probabilities in multi-party democracies
https://github.com/adibender/coalitions

coalition-probabilities election-analysis elections r rstats

Last synced: 12 days ago
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Coalition probabilities in multi-party democracies

• Host: GitHub
• URL: https://github.com/adibender/coalitions
• Owner: adibender
• License: other
• Created: 2013-11-06T09:56:30.000Z (about 11 years ago)
• Default Branch: master
• Last Pushed: 2024-07-22T11:08:12.000Z (4 months ago)
• Last Synced: 2024-10-11T18:19:27.134Z (27 days ago)
• Topics: coalition-probabilities, election-analysis, elections, r, rstats
• Language: R
• Homepage: https://adibender.github.io/coalitions/
• Size: 6.54 MB
• Stars: 21
• Watchers: 4
• Forks: 4
• Open Issues: 1
• Metadata Files:
  • Readme: README.Rmd
  • Changelog: NEWS.md
  • License: LICENSE
  • Code of conduct: CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md

Awesome Lists containing this project

• jimsghstars - adibender/coalitions - Coalition probabilities in multi-party democracies (R)

README

        
---

output: github_document

---

```{r options, echo=FALSE}

library(knitr)

opts_chunk$set(warning=FALSE)

```

# coalitions 

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[![Coverage Status](https://codecov.io/github/adibender/coalitions/master.svg)](https://codecov.io/github/adibender/coalitions?branch=master)

[![CRAN_Status_Badge](https://www.r-pkg.org/badges/version-ago/coalitions)](https://cran.r-project.org/package=coalitions)

[![](https://cranlogs.r-pkg.org/badges/grand-total/coalitions)](https://cran.r-project.org/package=coalitions)

[![MIT license](https://img.shields.io/badge/license-MIT-brightgreen.svg)](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT)

## Overview

The `coalitions` package implements a Bayesian framework for the estimation of

event probabilities in multi-party electoral systems (Bauer et al., 2019) like Germany, Austria etc.

To support estimation, the package also implements scrappers that

obtain data for German federal and general elections as well as Austrian

general election. The implementation can be extended to support other elections.

  - To get started, see our [workflow vignette](https://adibender.github.io/coalitions/articles/workflow.html)

  - Check out our [interactive shiny app](https://koala.stat.uni-muenchen.de/) on

  German (state and federal) elections/surveys

  - Updates are available from our [KOALA_LMU twitter account](https://twitter.com/KOALA_LMU)!

## Installation

```{r, eval=FALSE}

# To install from CRAN use:

install.packages("coalitions")

# To install the most current version from GitHub use:

devtools::install_github("adibender/coalitions")

```

## Usage

Detailed workflow is outlined in the

[workflow](https://adibender.github.io/coalitions/articles/workflow.html)

vignette.

A short overview is presented below.

### Scrape surveys

The wrapper `get_surveys()` which takes no arguments, downloads all surveys

currently available at [wahlrecht](https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen) and

stores them in a nested `tibble`:

```{r, message = FALSE}

library(coalitions)

library(dplyr)

library(tidyr)

surveys <- get_surveys()

surveys

```

Each row represents a polling agency and each row in the `surveys` column again

contains a nested `tibble` with survey results from different time-points:

```{r}

surveys %>%

    filter(pollster == "allensbach") %>%

    unnest()

survey <- surveys %>% unnest() %>% slice(1)

survey %>% unnest()

```

### Calculate coalition probabilities

For each survey (row) we can calculate the coalition probabilities

```{r}

survey %>% get_probabilities(nsim=1e4) %>% unnest()

```

## References

Bauer, Alexander, Andreas Bender, André Klima, and Helmut Küchenhoff. 2019. “KOALA: A New Paradigm for Election Coverage.” AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, June. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10182-019-00352-6.

Bender, Andreas, and Alexander Bauer. 2018. “Coalitions: Coalition Probabilities in Multi-Party Democracies,” March. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.00606.