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https://github.com/conormcd/lisbon-voting-simulation

A simulation of the voting methods used in the Council of the European Union before and after the Lisbon Treaty takes effect.
https://github.com/conormcd/lisbon-voting-simulation

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A simulation of the voting methods used in the Council of the European Union before and after the Lisbon Treaty takes effect.

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README 

        
INTRODUCTION

------------



This is a program which brute-forces all permutations of voting in the Council

of the European Union to show the number of times a country gets its way both

before and after the Treaty of Lisbon comes into effect.



HOW TO BUILD AND RUN THE PROGRAM

--------------------------------



The program was developed on a Mac and while every effort was made to only use

standard, widely available library functions you may have trouble building or

running it on another platform. Patches to make the program more portable would

be much appreciated.



On any Mac or UNIX-like operating system with gcc and make installed, building

the program should be as simple as typing "make" at a command prompt in the

directory where the source and Makefile are.



GLOSSARY / EXPLANATION OF THE CONCEPTS

--------------------------------------





	
Nice 50%


	
A voting method set out in the Nice Treaty. For a decision to pass it

		must have a majority of the countries in favour, at least 74% of the

		weighted votes in favour and 62% of the population in favour.

	


	
Nice 67%


	
A voting method set out in the Nice Treaty. For a decision to pass it

		must have a two-thirds majority of countries in favour, 74% of the

		weighted votes in favour and 62% of the population in favour.

	


	
TEU 16 (4)


	
A voting method described in the Lisbon Treaty. For a decision to pass

		it must have 55% of countries in favour and 65% of the population in

		favour. A decision may be blocked by any four countries.

	


	
TFEU 238 (1)


	
A voting method described in the Lisbon Treaty. For a decision to pass,

		a simple majority of countries is required.

	


	
TFEU 238 (2)


	
A voting method described in the Lisbon Treaty. For a decision to pass,

		72% of countries and 65% of the population must be in favour.

	


	
influence


	
A participant in a vote has "influence" if the outcome of a vote would

		change if that participant changed their vote.

	


	
win


	
Where the outcome of a vote matches the vote that a participant

		made.

	





Examples:



	AliceBobCharlie

	Vote 1YesYesNo

	Vote 2NoYesNo

	Vote 3YesYesYes



* In vote 1, Alice and Bob both win and both have influence.

* In vote 2, Alice and Charlie both win and both have influence.

* In vote 3, Alice, Bob and Charlie all win but none of them have influence.



RESULTS

-------



Here is the output the program produces:




Number of countries:           27

Number of voting permutations: 134217728

Number of voting methods:      5



"Wins" by country and voting method:



                Nice 50%  Nice 67%  TEU 16 (4)  TFEU 238 (1)  TFEU 238 (2)  

Austria         67935350  67867657    67111454      77509464      67634816  

Belgium         68091934  67965305    67111454      77509464      67640436  

Bulgaria        67935350  67867657    67111454      77509464      67633544  

Cyprus          67444384  67565761    67111454      77509464      67620020  

Czech Republic  68091934  67965305    67111454      77509464      67638332  

Denmark         67692480  67719853    67111454      77509464      67628780  

Estonia         67444384  67565761    67111454      77509464      67620976  

Finland         67692480  67719853    67111454      77509464      67628658  

France          69177624  68669973    67111464      77509464      67768654  

Germany         69177624  68669973    67111472      77509464      67839364  

Greece          68091934  67965305    67111454      77509464      67640436  

Hungary         68091934  67965305    67111454      77509464      67638332  

Ireland         67692480  67719853    67111454      77509464      67626524  

Italy           69177624  68669973    67111464      77509464      67755348  

Latvia          67444384  67565761    67111454      77509464      67622890  

Lithuania       67692480  67719853    67111454      77509464      67624900  

Luxembourg      67444384  67565761    67111454      77509464      67619358  

Malta           67360308  67509981    67111454      77509464      67619216  

Netherlands     68170648  68013311    67111454      77509464      67656000  

Poland          69083206  68592905    67111460      77509464      67703908  

Portugal        68091934  67965305    67111454      77509464      67640436  

Romania         68247372  68065305    67111454      77509464      67664486  

Slovakia        67692480  67719853    67111454      77509464      67628780  

Slovenia        67444384  67565761    67111454      77509464      67622350  

Spain           69083206  68592905    67111460      77509464      67712100  

Sweden          67935350  67867657    67111454      77509464      67636194  

UK              69177624  68669973    67111464      77509464      67758640  



"Influences" by country and voting method:



                Nice 50%  Nice 67%  TEU 16 (4)  TFEU 238 (1)  TFEU 238 (2)  

Austria          1652972   1517586        5180      20801200       1051904  

Belgium          1966140   1712882        5180      20801200       1063144  

Bulgaria         1652972   1517586        5180      20801200       1049360  

Cyprus            671040    913794        5180      20801200       1022312  

Czech Republic   1966140   1712882        5180      20801200       1058936  

Denmark          1167232   1221978        5180      20801200       1039832  

Estonia           671040    913794        5180      20801200       1024224  

Finland          1167232   1221978        5180      20801200       1039588  

France           4137520   3122218        5200      20801200       1319580  

Germany          4137520   3122218        5216      20801200       1461000  

Greece           1966140   1712882        5180      20801200       1063144  

Hungary          1966140   1712882        5180      20801200       1058936  

Ireland          1167232   1221978        5180      20801200       1035320  

Italy            4137520   3122218        5200      20801200       1292968  

Latvia            671040    913794        5180      20801200       1028052  

Lithuania        1167232   1221978        5180      20801200       1032072  

Luxembourg        671040    913794        5180      20801200       1020988  

Malta             502888    802234        5180      20801200       1020704  

Netherlands      2123568   1808894        5180      20801200       1094272  

Poland           3948684   2968082        5192      20801200       1190088  

Portugal         1966140   1712882        5180      20801200       1063144  

Romania          2277016   1912882        5180      20801200       1111244  

Slovakia         1167232   1221978        5180      20801200       1039832  

Slovenia          671040    913794        5180      20801200       1026972  

Spain            3948684   2968082        5192      20801200       1206472  

Sweden           1652972   1517586        5180      20801200       1054660  

UK               4137520   3122218        5200      20801200       1299552