https://github.com/ireneflorez/bayes-practice
Bayes Theorem practice using the Candy Conundrum set of questions.
https://github.com/ireneflorez/bayes-practice
bayes jupyter-notebook
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Bayes Theorem practice using the Candy Conundrum set of questions.
- Host: GitHub
- URL: https://github.com/ireneflorez/bayes-practice
- Owner: IreneFlorez
- Created: 2018-09-17T00:12:12.000Z (over 6 years ago)
- Default Branch: master
- Last Pushed: 2018-09-17T00:15:35.000Z (over 6 years ago)
- Last Synced: 2025-01-11T10:41:27.014Z (4 months ago)
- Topics: bayes, jupyter-notebook
- Language: Jupyter Notebook
- Homepage:
- Size: 5.86 KB
- Stars: 0
- Watchers: 1
- Forks: 1
- Open Issues: 0
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Metadata Files:
- Readme: README.md
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README
# Bayes-practice
Bayes Theorem practice using the Candy Conundrum set of questions.
See the Jupyter Notebook for formulas used and answers.
Candy Conundrum I have two bowls of candy. One is supposed to be filled with candy-covered chocolates, the other filled with fruit-flavored candies with candy shells. Unfortunately, someone has nefariously mixed up the contents of the two bowls, mixing a portion of one bowl into the second, and vice versa. Even worse, the candies are visually indistinguishable, and can only be sorted out by taste.
I know that one of the bowls (A) has candies in the following proportions: A ~ {2/3 chocolate, 1/3 fruity}, B ~ {1/4 chocolate, 3/4 fruity}. Assume for the questions below that both bowls are large enough that small samples will not have a practical effect on the distribution of candies.
1) I select a bowl at random and choose a random candy. It's a chocolate candy! What is the probability that I've picked up bowl A (the one weighted towards chocolates)?
2) Continuing with the same bowl as before, I select two more candies. They are both fruity candies. What is the probability that I've picked up bowl A (the one weighted towards chocolates) now? (To clarify, there are three candies drawn in all: one chocolate and two fruity.)