https://github.com/kcarlile/corona
Demonstrates infection rate of Coronavirus over generations given an infection rate.
https://github.com/kcarlile/corona
Last synced: about 2 months ago
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Demonstrates infection rate of Coronavirus over generations given an infection rate.
- Host: GitHub
- URL: https://github.com/kcarlile/corona
- Owner: KCarlile
- Created: 2020-03-14T04:34:37.000Z (about 5 years ago)
- Default Branch: master
- Last Pushed: 2020-03-17T03:01:45.000Z (about 5 years ago)
- Last Synced: 2025-02-07T23:26:14.981Z (4 months ago)
- Language: Python
- Size: 3.91 KB
- Stars: 0
- Watchers: 0
- Forks: 0
- Open Issues: 1
-
Metadata Files:
- Readme: README.md
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README
# Corona
## Description
Demonstrates infection rate of Coronavirus over generations given an infection rate.
## Requirements
- Python 3.7.5+
- matplotlib library
## Running
Call without arguments; infection rate defaults to 2.0 and generation count defaults to 10:
```
$ python3 corona
```
Or, call with parameters (infection_rate, generations_count):
```
$python3 corona 2.5 50
```
## How it works
This is open source because I'm OPEN to someone helping make this better if I've done it incorreclty. :)
The Covid-19 virus has a reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – of between 2 and 2.5. (Source: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2)
As such, the default reproductive number (called "infection_rate" for this program) of 2.0, but you can always change it to 2.5.
Assuming an infection rate of 2.0, the first person would pass it to 2 others:
```
g(0) = 1
g(1) = 1 + (1 * 2.0)
```
Generation 0 is the first person to be infected. Generation 1 is the person infected plus those they passed the virus to. The third generation would then include those that the second generation passed it to, and so on:
```
g(0) = 1 => 1 infected
g(1) = 1 + (1 * 2.0) => 3 infected
g(2) = 3 + (2 * 2.0) => 7 infected
g(3) = 7 + (4 * 2.0) => 8 infected
g(4) = 15 + (8 * 2.0) => 31 infected
g(5) = 31 + (16 * 2.0) => 63 infected
g(6) = 63 + (32 * 2.0) => 127 infected
g(7) = 127 + (64 * 2.0) => 255 infected
g(8) = 255 + (128 * 2.0) => 511 infected
g(9) = 511 + (256 * 2.0) => 1023 infected
```
This is looking a lot like: ```g(x) = (2^(x+1)) - 1```