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https://github.com/kwonnayeon/numble

A project for predicting the closure of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) using predictive analytics.
https://github.com/kwonnayeon/numble

business-analytics machine-learning predictive-analytics r risk-assessment small-business team-project

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A project for predicting the closure of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) using predictive analytics.

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# Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Closure Prediction Project

## Project Summary

This project focuses on predicting the closure of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) using Business Trends and Outlook Survey Data. Key aspects include:

- **Data Utilization:** Leveraged survey data to analyze and predict SME closures.
- **Machine Learning Models:** Implemented models using R, with packages such as `randomForest`, `catboost`, and `BART`.
- **Performance Evaluation:** Assessed models with metrics like AUROC, F1 score, and accuracy.
- **Key Findings:** Highlighted the importance of including non-financial data for accurate closure predictions.

## Files Description

### `docs/`

- **`About the project in Korean.pdf`**: Comprehensive project documentation in Korean, covering the project overview, data details, ML models used, performance results, and key findings. Includes detailed preprocessing information.
- **`About the project.pdf`**: Summary of the project in English.
- **`Summary statistics.pdf`**: Contains summary statistics for the variables used in the analysis.
- **`Numble reflections.pdf`**: Reflections on the project, written in Korean, detailing insights and lessons learned.

### `code/`

- **`Numble Project.Rmd`**: R Markdown file with complete project code, from data preprocessing to model evaluation.
- **`Numble Project.R`**: R script with all code for data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation.

## Important Note

Due to a contract with the competition organization, the dataset used in this project cannot be uploaded. While the provided code will not include the dataset, it offers a comprehensive understanding of the project’s methodology and analysis.

## Contributors

- **Nayeon Kwon** - Sourcing non-financial data, data preprocessing, supporting building ML models, documentation
- **Younghoon Yoo** - Automated data preprocessing, building ML models, code optimization

## License

This project is licensed under the [MIT License](LICENSE.txt). See the [LICENSE.txt](LICENSE.txt) file for details.

Feel free to explore the repository and download the PDFs for detailed information about the Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Closure Prediction Project.