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https://github.com/mihaildoman/analyzing-tether-minting

Using Python to analyze the Impact of Tether's USDT Minting on Bitcoin Price Movements.
https://github.com/mihaildoman/analyzing-tether-minting

bitcoin crypto data data-analysis financial-analysis markets tether usdt

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Using Python to analyze the Impact of Tether's USDT Minting on Bitcoin Price Movements.

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# Analyzing the Impact of Tether's USDT Minting on Bitcoin Price Movements



Created in 2009, at the onset of the Great Financial Crisis, [Bitcoin](https://bitcoin.org) is the first cryptocurrency ever created, and remains the largest by market capitalization, which at the time of writing is $2T, with a price of over $100,000. Since its modest beginnings, Bitcoin has evolved into a highly respected asset, bridging the world of TradFi and attracting retail and institutional investors, but also companies and even national governments. 



In the early days of cryptocurrency markets, due to regulatory hurdles and skepticism from banks and financial institutions, fiat gateways were limited, so Bitcoin was the dominating trading pair on exchanges. But Bitcoin's price volatility made it challenging to trade other altcoins. This problem was addressed in 2014 with the introduction of the first stablecoin, [Tether's USDT](https://tether.to). 



A stablecoin is a cryptocurrency designed to maintain a 1:1 peg with a fiat currency (most commonly the U.S. dollar). Stablecoins gave traders and investors the possibility to trade cryptocurrencies without large fees and lengthy transfer processes. They also allowed for easier profit taking.



With time, USDT became one of the most important cryptocurrencies, with a [marketcap of $130B](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether), making it the fourth largest coin in the space. Other stablecoin projects followed, including Circle's USDC, Binance's BUSD and Terraform Labs' ill-fated UST. 



Today, many companies are launching their own stablecoins, with Ripple and even PayPal joining in. But despite growing competition, USDT maintains a dominant stablecoin market share of 65% at the time of writing.



## The Tether USDT Minting Narrative

Tether's USDT is the main trading pair for cryptocurrencies on a wide range of exchanges, including major platforms like Binance, ByBit and OKX. According to The Block, USDT-denominated trading pairs account for 65% of all trading volume, significantly surpassing the US Dollar, which only accounts for 15%.



With such a dominant role, USDT is pivotal to cryptocurrency markets. Each time Tether mints another 1 billion USDT on-chain, traders and investors often interpret this as a bullish signal. This perception has become a very powerful narrative within the crypto trading community, so much so that Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, frequently posts disclaimers to clarify the purpose of these minting events and manage market expectations. 



This analysis seeks to answer this critical question: Does Tether's USDT minting impact the price of Bitcoin? If so, in what manner and to what extent? 



By employing an unbiased methodology and rigorously analyzing the data, we'll aim to draw conclusions based on empirical evidence rather than speculation.



## The repository includes the following components:

- A Jupyter Notebook detailing the data retrieval and preprocessing steps.

- A PDF presentation providing an in-depth interpretation of the results and final conclusions.

- Two datasets: one with Bitcoin price data and the other with Tether mint data.

- A folder containing all the charts generated during the analysis in Jupyter.