https://github.com/mwmiller/painstaking

Bet stake sizing in Elixir
https://github.com/mwmiller/painstaking

Last synced: 19 days ago
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Bet stake sizing in Elixir

• Host: GitHub
• URL: https://github.com/mwmiller/painstaking
• Owner: mwmiller
• License: mit
• Created: 2016-01-08T19:14:25.000Z (almost 9 years ago)
• Default Branch: master
• Last Pushed: 2023-11-17T16:13:17.000Z (about 1 year ago)
• Last Synced: 2024-11-13T04:08:05.987Z (about 1 month ago)
• Language: Elixir
• Homepage:
• Size: 70.3 KB
• Stars: 2
• Watchers: 3
• Forks: 0
• Open Issues: 0
• Metadata Files:
  • Readme: README.md
  • License: LICENSE

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README

        
# PainStaking

Bet stake sizing in Elixir:

- Kelly staking

- Arbitrage

- Monte Carlo simulated wins

- Mathematical expectation

## Dependencies

- Exoddic

## Installation

```

# add dependencies in mix.exs

defp deps do

  [

    {:painstaking, "~> 0.5"}

  ]

end

# and fetch

$ mix deps.get

```

## Examples

```

iex> PainStaking.kelly([{"loser", [prob: 0.50], [us: -110]}])

{:error, "No suitable positive expectation edges found."}

iex> PainStaking.kelly([{"winner", [prob: 0.50], [us: "+101"]}], bankroll: 20_000)

{:ok, [{"winner", 99.01}]}

iex> PainStaking.arb([{"lions", [prob: 0.55], [us: "+100"]}, {"bears", [prob: 0.45], [eu: 2.00]}])

{:error, "No arbitrage exists for these events."} # No arb

iex> PainStaking.arb([{"lions", [prob: 0.55], [us: "+100"]}, {"bears", [prob: 0.45], [eu: 2.10]}], independent: true)

{:error, "No arbitrage exists for these events."} # Arbitrage only on different results for same event

iex> PainStaking.arb([{"lions", [prob: 0.55], [us: "+100"]}, {"bears", [prob: 0.45], [eu: 2.10]}], bankroll: 1_000)

{:ok, [{"lions", 512.20}, {"bears", 487.80}], 24.39} # Arb available, bet on each, net 24.39 regardless of outcome

iex> PainStaking.sim_win([{"big winner", [prob: 0.80], [us: -110]}])

{:ok, 30.00} # Or something close, depending on how the sim works out.

iex> PainStaking.ev([{"big winner", [prob: 0.80], [us: -110]}, {"winner", [prob: 0.50], [us: "+101"]}], bankroll: 1)

{:ok, [{"big winner", 1.5272727272727273}, {"winner", 1.005}]}

```