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https://github.com/nismod/arc-economics

Process model outputs from Cambridge Econometrics for Cam-MK-Ox Arc analysis
https://github.com/nismod/arc-economics

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Process model outputs from Cambridge Econometrics for Cam-MK-Ox Arc analysis

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README 

        

# Arc Analysis Economic scenarios



This dataset covers employment, GVA and productivity for each LAD in the Arc study area. It

includes total economy, “knowledge-based sectors” (KBS) which are basically knowledge intensive

services and manufacturing and non-knowledge-based sectors (which is everything else).



Note that due to time constraints this was very much a quick and simplistic process.



## Scenarios



### Baseline



These are the baseline projections used to generate the Cambridge Econometrics report for the

National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) [[1]](#references). We think it makes sense that we

don’t try to reinvent the wheel but instead test the growth assumptions that are similar to the

published ambitions. They were originally estimated using the Cambridge Econometrics LEFM model

[[2]](#references).



### Scenario 0 - Unplanned



These are the “transformational” projections used to generate the Cambridge Econometrics NIC

report. These were generated by replicating past periods of high growth in the three main

cities and surrounding LADs. There’s an additional implicit assumption here that whilst every

LAD in the study area will experience employment and productivity growth, the locations of

potential new stations on East-West Rail, and junctions on the Oxford-Cambridge Expressway,

have a positive impact on employment site viability)



### Scenario 1 - New Cities



Here we take the overall growth trends from scenario 0 but more strongly clustered

employment to the LADs that either host or are closely connected to the 5 new cities in the

scenario, distributed as follows:



- Newtown 01 Aylesbury Vale but also some spillover into Cherwell

- Newtown 02 Aylesbury Vale but also some spillover into South Oxfordshire

- Newtown 03 Central Bedfordshire with some spillover into Bedford LA

- Newtown 04 South Cambridgeshire

- Newtown 05 Huntingdonshire with spillover into South Cambridgeshire



### Scenario 2 - Expansion



Here we take scenario 0 and but now reallocated employment to the three core city economies. In

the cases where the cities are underbounded by their designated LA, we’ve allocated a

proportion of that growth to the neighbouring LADs, specifically Cambridge into South

Cambridgeshire, and Oxford into South Oxfordshire, Vale of the White Horse and Cherwell.



Having first allocated employment growth; in scenarios 1 and 2, we’ve then adjusted KBS

productivity upwards slightly in strongly impacted LADs to account for agglomeration benefits,

and used this to recalculate GVA.



## Scenario processing



Data as provided by Cambridge Econometrics is processed into tidy CSV format suitable for input

to other models by the `convert-scenarios.ipynb` notebook.



Recommend using [`miniconda`](https://docs.conda.io/en/latest/miniconda.html) to install

Python, jupyter and pandas to run the processing, and nbstripout to avoid saving notebook data

in git history.



- `data_as_provided`

  - `ARC Employment Scenarios.xslx` - Arc scenarios from CE

  - `GVA-Employment-Productivity-All Las.xlsx` - All-LADs baseline from CE

  - `lad_nmcd_changes.csv` - derived from ONS Geography

- `data_processed`

  - `gb_baseline.csv` - tidy version of GVA-Employment-Productivity-All Las.xlsx

  - `arc_variants.csv` - tidy version of ARC Employment Scenarios.xslx

  - `arc_gva_employment_{scenario}.csv` - four scenario variants with Employment (000s) and GVA (£2011m)



The four `arc_gva_employment_{scenario}.csv` files pick the employment and GVA values:

1. for non-Arc LADs, from the all-LADs baseline

2. for Arc LADs, from the Arc scenarios



Note that the all-LADs data is converted from £2016m to £2011m - even so the baseline Arc

scenario diverges from the all-LADs baseline values for the Arc LADs.



## References



1. Cambridge Econometrics (8 November 2016) Cambridge, Milton Keynes, Oxford, Northampton

   Growth Corridor: Final Report for The National Infrastructure Commission. Available at:

   https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/601163/Economic-analysis-Cambridge-Econometrics-SQW-report-for-NIC.PDF

2. Cambridge Econometrics (2019) The Local Economy Forecasting Model. Available at:

   https://www.camecon.com/how/lefm-model/