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https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict

Prediction Market Platform: Easy to Deploy, Open Source MIT Licensed
https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict

decision-making finance financial-simulation forecast forecasting forecasting-methods forecasting-platforms forecasts futarchy market mit-license opensource prediction prediction-market predictions trade

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Prediction Market Platform: Easy to Deploy, Open Source MIT Licensed

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README 

          
[![GitHub Release][release-img]][release]

[![14-day clones][clones-14d-img]][traffic]

[![14-day unique cloners][unique-cloners-14d-img]][traffic]

[![Test][test-img]][test]

[![License: MIT][license-img]][license]

[![Trivy Scan][trivy-img]][trivy]

[![Deploy To Staging][staging-img]][staging]

[![Deploy To Production][production-img]][production]



[release-img]: https://img.shields.io/github/v/release/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict?label=release

[release]: https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/releases/latest

[clones-14d-img]: https://img.shields.io/badge/14d%20clones-3%2C702-62c3f8

[unique-cloners-14d-img]: https://img.shields.io/badge/14d%20cloners-535-2ea043

[traffic]: https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/graphs/traffic

[test-img]: https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/actions/workflows/backend.yml/badge.svg?branch=main

[test]: https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/actions/workflows/backend.yml

[license-img]: https://img.shields.io/badge/License-MIT-yellow.svg

[license]: https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/blob/main/LICENSE

[trivy-img]: https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/actions/workflows/container-security.yml/badge.svg

[trivy]: https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/actions/workflows/container-security.yml

[staging-img]: https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/actions/workflows/deploy-to-staging.yml/badge.svg?event=pull_request

[staging]: https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/actions/workflows/deploy-to-staging.yml

[production-img]: https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/actions/workflows/deploy-to-production.yml/badge.svg?event=workflow_run

[production]: https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/actions/workflows/deploy-to-production.yml



# SocialPredict



## The open prediction market engine for everyone



SocialPredict lets **anyone** – individuals, classrooms, companies, and even governments – tap into the power of prediction markets.



### Setting Up SocialPredict Website with HTTPS on a Virtual Private Computer



![socialpredict_setup_demo](https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/1062a3b2-46d0-4a40-a648-39e71f0e7cec)



### SocialPredict Logging In and Creating Market



![socialpredict_demo_3x](https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/438bb424-670b-4cd3-a69f-5581c4d9fcbf)



---



### Join us in shaping the future of prediction markets by building connections and expertise within your community!



## Used By



Kenyon College Logo



* Kenyon College (Political Science course PSCI 303, Campaigns & Elections; syllabus [here](https://www.zacharymcgee.net/syllabi/PSCI_303_public.pdf))

                        

## Stargazers Over Time

[![Star History Chart](https://app.repohistory.com/api/svg?repo=openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict&type=Date&background=0D1117&color=62C3F8)](https://app.repohistory.com/star-history)



## Licensing



SocialPredict is available under the [MIT License](https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/blob/main/LICENSE).



---



## Roadmap at a Glance



We’re building SocialPredict as the **best free prediction-market infrastructure** you can run yourself — today and into the future.



```mermaid

flowchart LR



    classDef roadmap fill:#dbeafe,stroke:#1d4ed8,color:#111827,stroke-width:2px;



    Y2025["🧩 Service Architecture
2025"]

    Y2026["🧱 Microservices & Math
2026"]

    Y2027["☁️ Cloud & UX
2027"]

    Y2030["🚀 HPC & Analytics
2028–2030"]



    Y2025 --> Y2026 --> Y2027 --> Y2030



    class Y2025,Y2026,Y2027,Y2030 roadmap

```



---



## Staging



Check out our staging instance at [kconfs.com](https://kconfs.com/) to see the newest `main` branch deployment in action. This environment may be reset, load tested, or temporarily unavailable while we test deployment and capacity changes.



Our model office / production-style release target is [brierfoxforecast.com](https://brierfoxforecast.com/). This environment is intended to track published releases rather than every merge to `main`.



## Feature Highlights



### Moderator Mode



SocialPredict now supports a moderator-driven market workflow. Approved moderators can propose markets, while admins retain final publishing control. Proposed markets are not tradable until an admin approves them.



Highlights:



- Moderator approval/status management

- Proposed, published, and rejected market lifecycle states

- Proposal cost accounting and refund behavior for rejected proposals

- Moderator profile tabs for proposed, published, and rejected markets

- Admin review queues for proposed, approved, and rejected markets

- Full market descriptions and custom YES/NO labels shown during review



![Moderator profile showing proposed, published, and rejected market tabs](README/IMG/screenshots/moderator-profile-market-tabs.png)



![Admin published market review queue with full-description controls and tag adjustments](README/IMG/screenshots/admin-market-review-published.png)



### Admin and CMS Tools



Admins have expanded operational controls for reviewing users, reviewing proposed markets, stewarding market operations, organizing market discovery, and managing public sharing metadata.



Highlights:



- Admin user queue for moderator eligibility/status review

- Market review tools with approval, rejection, review trail, and refund behavior

- Market stewardship reassignment so admins can move operational responsibility from a suspended or unavailable moderator to another active moderator

- Admin-managed market tags, topic navigation, market pins, and market discovery layout controls

- CMS-managed social share title, description, image, and image-enable setting

- Default OpenGraph/social share image support



![Admin user governance queue](README/IMG/screenshots/admin-user-governance.png)



![Admin market discovery layout editor](README/IMG/screenshots/admin-market-discovery-layout.png)



![Admin social share CMS settings with share preview](README/IMG/screenshots/admin-social-share-settings.png)



### Market Discovery and Governance



Market discovery has moved beyond a flat market list. Admin-managed tags and market discovery layout controls now support topic navigation, pinned markets, and tag-filtered topic pages while keeping search as the primary entry point.



Highlights:



- Admin-managed tags shown on market creation, admin review, market lists, and market detail pages

- `/markets` topic navigation with persistent tag/category pins

- Tag-filtered secondary pages under `/markets/topic/:slug`

- Pinned market cards for curated discovery

- Infinite-scroll market lists for `/markets` and topic pages

- Search and pagination improvements for admin market review and user/moderator queues



![Markets discovery page with topic navigation and pinned market cards](README/IMG/screenshots/markets-discovery.png)



![Topic page filtered by Category A](README/IMG/screenshots/markets-topic-category-a.png)



### Sharing and Embeddable Markets



Market pages now have a stronger sharing foundation, including OpenGraph and Twitter card metadata for link previews. The embeddable-market feature plan is documented so individual markets can be shared and embedded more cleanly as that work continues.



Highlights:



- Market-aware OpenGraph metadata

- Social share image endpoint and default image

- Security-header updates needed for controlled embedding

- Feature planning for iframe-friendly market embeds



![Market detail page with chart and public sharing-ready metadata](README/IMG/screenshots/market-detail-share-ready.png)



### Market Amendments, Stewardship, and Work Profits



Market governance now includes clearer controls around who can operate a market after it is published and how contract-like text can be clarified.



Highlights:



- Immutable market titles with additive-only description amendments

- Moderator/steward amendment proposal queues with admin pending/approved/rejected review

- Optional admin auto-approval for market proposals and amendments

- Suspended moderators lose market-creation/governance capabilities

- Current stewards, not necessarily original creators, can govern and resolve assigned markets

- Thresholded moderator work-profit payouts after successful market resolution

- User financial reporting for moderator work profits



![Market page showing expanded contract text and approved amendments](README/IMG/screenshots/market-description-amendments.png)



![Admin amendment review queue](README/IMG/screenshots/admin-amendment-review-queue.png)



### Read Models and Performance Foundations



The backend now has a stronger performance boundary between transaction-time math and display/read-model data.



Highlights:



- Display-oriented market accounting snapshots for volume, dust, probability, participants, and chart data

- Cached/read-model paths for system metrics, user financial metrics, market cards, leaderboards, and market widgets

- Freshness messaging for cached display widgets

- Pagination for market bets, positions, market leaderboards, global leaderboard, and market lists

- Boundary tests to keep snapshots out of buy/sell/resolution transaction paths



### Load Testing and Release Dossiers



The repository now includes an external load-testing harness under [`loadtest/`](./loadtest/README.md). It uses k6 from a separate load-generator machine and can seed remote staging fixtures, pull fixture CSVs, run smoke/baseline/hot-market tests, and capture host telemetry through HostOps.



Current capacity evidence is summarized in the [staging load-test dossier](./loadtest/dossier/staging-capacity-2026-05-29.md), the [large Basic AMD experiment notebook](./loadtest/dossier/general-purpose-capacity-experiment-2026-06-02.md), and the [capacity forecast dossier](./loadtest/dossier/capacity-forecast-2026-06-02.md).



Highlights:



- k6 smoke, baseline, hot-market burst, and soak scenarios

- Remote staging fixture seeding and fixture pull commands

- Host telemetry capture for CPU, RAM, disk, network, Docker, backend, Postgres, and Traefik

- Host profile capture to record the exact tested Droplet shape and Docker/container limits

- Release dossier tooling for turning load-test results into reviewable evidence



Example dossier: [Staging Capacity Dossier, 2026-05-29](./loadtest/dossier/staging-capacity-2026-05-29.md). Look for the most recent dossier before making deployment or sizing decisions, because capacity results depend on the exact release, host size, database topology, and rate-limit configuration under test.



Latest forecast note: [Capacity Forecast Dossier, 2026-06-02](./loadtest/dossier/capacity-forecast-2026-06-02.md) records the strongest current sustained hot-market result as `250` bets/sec for `5m` on a single-node DigitalOcean Basic AMD `8 vCPU / 32 GiB RAM` host, while `300` bets/sec for `5m` is not yet a clean supported target.



## Getting Started



### Setting up a Local Instance



- [Info on Local Setup](/README/LOCAL_SETUP.md)

- [Info on How Economics Can Be Customized](/README/README-CONFIG.md)

- Development fixture helpers are available through `./SocialPredict dev-bootstrap-users` for local smoke testing.



### Deploying to the Web



- [How to Set Up Your Own Website](/README/STAGE_SETUP.md)

- [HostOps Scaffold and Infra Boundary Notes](/README/INFRA/README-INFRA-HOSTOPS.md)

- [Staging Deployment Guide](/README/INFRA/README-INFRA-STAGING.md)

- [Production Deployment Guide](/README/INFRA/README-INFRA-PRODUCTION.md)



OpenPredictionMarkets deployment conventions:



- Merges to `main` deploy staging at [kconfs.com](https://kconfs.com/).

- Published GitHub releases deploy the model office / production-style target at [brierfoxforecast.com](https://brierfoxforecast.com/).

- GitHub Actions dispatch Ansible-based deploys and then verify public `/health` and `/readyz`.

- HostOps is a local convenience wrapper for host SSH, environment discovery, disk checks, cleanup, and load-test telemetry support.



### API, Operations, and Load Testing



- [Canonical Backend API documentation](/backend/docs/README.md)

- [Load Testing Guide](/loadtest/README.md)

- [Load Test CLI Runbook](/loadtest/cli/OPERATING.md)

- [Current Staging Capacity Dossier](/loadtest/dossier/staging-capacity-2026-05-29.md)

- [Capacity Forecast Dossier](/loadtest/dossier/capacity-forecast-2026-06-02.md)



### How Do Prediction Markets Work?



Here's a quick primer about how (and why) [prediction markets work](/README/MATH/README-MATH.md). Want more info? We maintain a list of resources where you can see research on [prediction markets in action](https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/resources).



## Contributing



We welcome and appreciate every contribution. Get started by reading our [guide](https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md) and make sure to follow our [Code of Conduct](https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/blob/main/CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md).



### Where to Next?



- Brush up on our [Development Conventions](/README/README-CONVENTIONS.md)

- Review the canonical [Backend API documentation](/backend/docs/README.md)

- Check out our [ongoing Projects](https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/projects?query=is%3Aopen)

- Look at our [Issues](https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict/issues)

- Have your say on [GitHub Discussions](https://github.com/orgs/openpredictionmarkets/discussions)