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https://github.com/pmichaillat/feru
Code and data for the paper "u* = √uv: The Full-Employment Rate of Unemployment in the United States"
https://github.com/pmichaillat/feru
beveridge-curve business-cycles feru full-employment job-vacancies matlab monetary-policy paper-with-code unemployment unemployment-gap
Last synced: 4 days ago
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Code and data for the paper "u* = √uv: The Full-Employment Rate of Unemployment in the United States"
- Host: GitHub
- URL: https://github.com/pmichaillat/feru
- Owner: pmichaillat
- License: mit
- Created: 2022-04-16T21:22:25.000Z (over 2 years ago)
- Default Branch: main
- Last Pushed: 2024-10-20T16:15:13.000Z (25 days ago)
- Last Synced: 2024-10-21T20:58:14.597Z (24 days ago)
- Topics: beveridge-curve, business-cycles, feru, full-employment, job-vacancies, matlab, monetary-policy, paper-with-code, unemployment, unemployment-gap
- Language: MATLAB
- Homepage: https://pascalmichaillat.org/13/
- Size: 1.29 MB
- Stars: 6
- Watchers: 2
- Forks: 3
- Open Issues: 0
-
Metadata Files:
- Readme: README.md
- License: LICENSE.md
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README
# u* = √uv : The Full-Employment Rate of Unemployment in the United States – Code and Data
This repository contains the code and data accompanying the paper "u* = √uv: The Full-Employment Rate of Unemployment in the United States", written by [Pascal Michaillat](https://pascalmichaillat.org) and [Emmanuel Saez](https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/), and to be published in the Fall 2024 issue of [Brookings Papers on Economic Activity](https://www.brookings.edu/events/bpea-fall-2024-conference/).
## Paper webpage
The paper is available at https://pascalmichaillat.org/13/.
## Raw data
The raw data used by the code to produce the results in the paper are stored as CSV files. The data are placed in the `raw` folder.
+ `20210719_cycle_dates_pasted.csv` – US recession dates, 1930–2024
+ Source: [National Bureau of Economic Research (2023)](http://data.nber.org/data/cycles/)
+ `CLF16OV.csv` – US labor-force level, 1948–2024
+ Source: [US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024a)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CLF16OV)
+ `CompositeHWI.xlsx - Sheet1.csv` – US vacancy rate, 1951–2020
+ Source: [Barnichon (2010)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fkMinSHkjTL99-bLZYFldQ8rHtgh8lxd)
+ `ustar.csv` – US NAIRU, 1960–2023
+ Source: [Crump, Eusepi, Giannoni, Sahin (2024)](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103580)
+ `figure5.csv` – Dates of structural breaks in the US Beveridge curve, 1951–2019
+ Source: [Michaillat, Saez (2021a)](https://github.com/pmichaillat/unemployment-gap)
+ `figure6.csv` – Elasticity of the US Beveridge curve, 1951–2019
+ Source: [Michaillat, Saez (2021a)](https://github.com/pmichaillat/unemployment-gap)
+ `HistoricalSeries_JME_2020January.csv` – US unemployment and vacancy rates, 1890–2017
+ Source: [Petrosky-Nadeau, Zhang (2021)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ym0zkHZtIvb73zjLzL2cz_P5lXrulzFgvZpA5ZYyElI)
+ `JTSJOL.csv` – Job openings in the United States, 2001–2024
+ Source: [US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024f)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL)
+ `LNU05026642.csv` – Marginally attached workers in the United States, 1994–2024
+ Source: [US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024h)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU05026642)
+ `LNU05026645.csv` – Discouraged workers in the United States, 1994–2024
+ Source: [US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024g)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU05026645)
+ `NROU.csv` – US NRU, 1949–2024
+ Source: [US Congressional Budget Office (2024)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROU)
+ `NROUST.csv` – US short-term NRU, 1949–2021
+ Source: [US Congressional Budget Office (2021)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NROUST)
+ `U4RATE.csv` – US U4 unemployment rate, 1994–2024
+ Source: [US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024i)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U4RATE)
+ `U5RATE.csv` – US U5 unemployment rate, 1994–2024
+ Source: [US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024j)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U5RATE)
+ `UNRATE.csv` – US unemployment (U3) rate, 1948–2024
+ Source: [US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024k)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE)## Code
The results in the paper are produced with MATLAB code. The code is placed in the `code` folder.
### Main script
The main script, `main.m`, orchestrates the production of the results in the paper:
+ The script produces the 30 figures presented in the paper. The script generates each figure in a figure window and saves the figures as PDF files. The script saves the data used to generate each figure in CSV files.
+ The script also produces the numerical results associated with each figure. The results are displayed in the command window and saved in Markdown files.### Formatting script
Before the computations begin, the main script calls the script `formatFigure.m` to preformat figures and predefine plot properties.
### Production scripts
The main script then produces the individual figures using a collection of scripts:
+ `figure1A.m` – Produce figure 1A
+ `figure1B.m` – Produce figure 1B
+ `figure2.m` – Produce figures 2A, 2B, 2C, 2D, 2E, 2F
+ `figure3A.m` – Produce figure 3A
+ `figure3B.m` – Produce figure 3B
+ `figure4A.m` – Produce figure 4A
+ `figure4B.m` – Produce figure 4B
+ `figure5A.m` – Produce figure 5A
+ `figure5B.m` – Produce figure 5B
+ `figure6A.m` – Produce figure 6A
+ `figure6B.m` – Produce figure 6B
+ `figure7A.m` – Produce figure 7A
+ `figure7B.m` – Produce figure 7B
+ `figure8A.m` – Produce figure 8A
+ `figure8B.m` – Produce figure 8B
+ `figure9A.m` – Produce figure 9A
+ `figure9B.m` – Produce figure 9B
+ `figure10.m` – Produce figure 10
+ `figure11.m` – Produce figure 11
+ `figure12.m` – Produce figure 12
+ `figure13A.m` – Produce figure 13A
+ `figure13B.m` – Produce figure 13B
+ `figure14A.m` – Produce figure 14A
+ `figure14B.m` – Produce figure 14B
+ `figure15.m` – Produce figure 15The scripts produce figures in figure windows, save a copy of each figure in PDF format, and save the data used to generate each figure in CSV files. Each script also produces the numerical results associated with the figure. The results are displayed in the command window and saved in a Markdown file.
### Helper functions
The production scripts rely on a collection of helper functions:
+ `getBreak` – Return dates of structural breaks of the US Beveridge curve, 1951–2019
+ `getData345` – Return US U3, U4, U5 unemployment rates, 1994–2024
+ `getElasticity` – Return elasticity of the US Beveridge curve, 1951–2019
+ `getNairu` – Return US NAIRU, 1960–2023
+ `getNru` – Return US NRU, 1949–2024
+ `getNrust` – Return US short-term NRU, 1949–2021
+ `getRecession.m` – Return US recession dates, 1930–2024
+ `getRecession345` – Return US recession dates, 1994–2024
+ `getRecessionDepression.m` – Return US recession dates, 1930–1950
+ `getRecessionPandemic.m` – Return US recession dates, 2020–2024
+ `getRecessionPostwar.m` – Return US recession dates, 1951–2019
+ `getUnemployment.m` – Return US unemployment rate, 1930–2024
+ `getUnemploymentDepression.m` – Return US unemployment rate, 1930–1950
+ `getUnemploymentJolts.m` – Return US unemployment rate, 2001–2024
+ `getUnemploymentPandemic.m` – Return US unemployment rate, 2020–2024
+ `getUnemploymentPostwar.m` – Return US unemployment rate, 1951–2019
+ `getVacancy.m` – Return US vacancy rate, 1930–2024
+ `getVacancyDepression.m` – Return US vacancy rate, 1930–2024
+ `getVacancyJolts.m` – Return US vacancy rate, 2001–2024
+ `getVacancyPandemic.m` – Return US vacancy rate, 2020–2024
+ `getVacancyPostwar.m` – Return US vacancy rate, 1951–2019
+ `monthly2quarterly.m` – Convert monthly data to quarterly data## Figures
The 30 figures produced by the code are saved as 30 PDF files. The data used to generate each figure are saved in CSV files. And the numerical results associated with each figure are saved in Markdown files. All these files are placed in the `figures` folder, each corresponding to a specific figure in the paper:
+ `figure1A.pdf`, `figure1A.csv`, `figure1A.md` – Figure 1A
+ `figure1B.pdf`, `figure1B.csv` – Figure 1B
+ `figure2A.pdf`, `figure2.csv` – Figure 2A
+ `figure2B.pdf`, `figure2.csv` – Figure 2B
+ `figure2C.pdf`, `figure2.csv` – Figure 2C
+ `figure2D.pdf`, `figure2.csv` – Figure 2D
+ `figure2E.pdf`, `figure2.csv` – Figure 2E
+ `figure2F.pdf`, `figure2.csv` – Figure 2F
+ `figure3A.pdf`, `figure3A.csv` – Figure 3A
+ `figure3B.pdf`, `figure3B.csv`, `figure3B.md` – Figure 3B
+ `figure4A.pdf`, `figure4A.csv`, `figure4A.md` – Figure 4A
+ `figure4B.pdf`, `figure4B.csv`, `figure4B.md` – Figure 4B
+ `figure5A.pdf`, `figure5A.csv`, `figure5A.md` – Figure 5A
+ `figure5B.pdf`, `figure5B.csv`, `figure5B.md` – Figure 5B
+ `figure6A.pdf`, `figure6A.csv` – Figure 6A
+ `figure6B.pdf`, `figure6B.csv`, `figure6B.md` – Figure 6B
+ `figure7A.pdf`, `figure7A.csv`, `figure7A.md` – Figure 7A
+ `figure7B.pdf`, `figure7B.csv`, `figure7B.md` – Figure 7B
+ `figure8A.pdf`, `figure8A.csv`, `figure8A.md` – Figure 8A
+ `figure8B.pdf`, `figure8B.csv`, `figure8B.md` – Figure 8B
+ `figure9A.pdf`, `figure9A.csv`, `figure9A.md` – Figure 9A
+ `figure9B.pdf`, `figure9B.csv`, `figure9B.md` – Figure 9B
+ `figure10.pdf`, `figure10.csv` – Figure 10
+ `figure11.pdf`, `figure11.csv`, `figure11.md` – Figure 11
+ `figure12.pdf`, `figure12.csv`, `figure12.md` – Figure 12
+ `figure13A.pdf`, `figure13A.csv`, `figure13A.md` – Figure 13A
+ `figure13B.pdf`, `figure13B.csv`, `figure13B.md` – Figure 13B
+ `figure14A.pdf`, `figure14A.csv`, `figure14A.md` – Figure 14A
+ `figure14B.pdf`, `figure14B.csv`, `figure14B.md` – Figure 14B
+ `figure15.pdf`, `figure15.csv`, `figure15.md` – Figure 15## Usage
To generate all figures and numerical results presented in the paper, run the following command in MATLAB:
```matlab
run('main.m')
```Before running the script, ensure you save a copy of the `figures` folder, as all files in that folder will be overwritten by the code when new figures are generated.
Alternatively, you can save the new files produced by the code in a new folder. To do this, create a new folder `newfigures`, and then in `main.m`, adjust the output folder with the following line:
```matlab
outputFolder = fullfile('..', 'newfigures');
```## Software
The results were obtained using MATLAB R2024a on an Apple Silicon Mac running macOS Sequoia 15.0. In MATLAB, the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox is required to run some of the scripts.
## License
The content of this repository is licensed under the terms of the MIT License.