https://github.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions

Stock market predictions for the S&P 500, submitted by users of a financial forum.
https://github.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions

Last synced: 10 months ago
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Stock market predictions for the S&P 500, submitted by users of a financial forum.

• Host: GitHub
• URL: https://github.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions
• Owner: primaryobjects
• Created: 2017-01-04T16:32:15.000Z (about 9 years ago)
• Default Branch: master
• Last Pushed: 2017-01-11T19:29:42.000Z (about 9 years ago)
• Last Synced: 2025-03-21T06:41:36.609Z (10 months ago)
• Language: R
• Size: 1.11 MB
• Stars: 6
• Watchers: 4
• Forks: 3
• Open Issues: 0
• Metadata Files:
  • Readme: readme.md

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README

          
S&P 500 Stock Predictions

-------------------------------

A dataset of stock predictions from 2010 to 2017, submitted by forum community users as part of the bogleheads.org stock market prediction contest.

This project collects all user guesses for the ending price of the stock market's S&P 500 at the end of the year. Users submit their guesses within the first 10 days of the year.

## The Dataset

Data was collected from forum postings from the years 2010 to 2017. Each post was made during the first week of the year, and contained a prediction for the ending price of the S&P 500 for the given year.

Download the [raw](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions/master/data/predictions-raw.csv) or [pre-processed](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions/master/data/predictions.csv) dataset as a CSV file.

The dataset contains the following fields:

"id" - A unique id for the original form post.

"author" - User name of the guess.

"history" - Total number of posts made by the user.

"date" - Date of the guess.

"bid" - S&P 500 ending year guess.

"bull" - True if the guess is greater than the S&P 500 opening day price.

The predictions-raw CSV file contains stock market predictions, collected in their raw form, directly from user postings. The pre-processed CSV file removes bids beyond the contest ending data, removes duplicates, removes missing bids, removes the introduction post, and adds the "bull" column.

## Results

Charts are available for each [year](https://github.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions/tree/master/images) in the dataset. The following were produced from the dataset for the year 2017.

![2017 S&P 500 Predicitions](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions/master/images/2017/bids-2017.png)

![Are predictions bullish or bearish in 2017?](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions/master/images/2017/bullsvsbears-2017.png)

![Histogram of Predicitions](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions/master/images/2017/histogram-2017.png)

![Overview of Predicitions](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions/master/images/2017/overview-2017.png)

![Bulls vs Bears by Year](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions/master/images/bulls-vs-bears.png)

![Bearish Sentiment by Year](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/primaryobjects/stock-predictions/master/images/bear-sentiment.png)

## References

[Bogleheads.org](https://www.bogleheads.org/)

[DieHards Stock Prediction Archive](http://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/)

## Copyright

Copyright (c) 2017 Kory Becker http://primaryobjects.com/kory-becker

## Author

Kory Becker

http://www.primaryobjects.com