https://github.com/security-decision-science/security-decision-science
Free notebooks & app for Monte Carlo, Causal, Bayes, Survival Analysis and turning security data into decisions.
https://github.com/security-decision-science/security-decision-science
bayesian causal-inference cybersecurity decision-science documentation jupyter-book monte-carlo survival-analysis value-of-information
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Free notebooks & app for Monte Carlo, Causal, Bayes, Survival Analysis and turning security data into decisions.
- Host: GitHub
- URL: https://github.com/security-decision-science/security-decision-science
- Owner: security-decision-science
- License: mit
- Created: 2025-10-03T14:27:51.000Z (9 months ago)
- Default Branch: main
- Last Pushed: 2025-10-15T20:43:26.000Z (9 months ago)
- Last Synced: 2025-10-16T13:10:18.959Z (9 months ago)
- Topics: bayesian, causal-inference, cybersecurity, decision-science, documentation, jupyter-book, monte-carlo, survival-analysis, value-of-information
- Homepage: https://security-decision-science.github.io/security-decision-science/
- Size: 109 KB
- Stars: 0
- Watchers: 0
- Forks: 0
- Open Issues: 0
-
Metadata Files:
- Readme: README.md
- License: LICENSE
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README
# Security Decision Science
_Free notebooks for Monte Carlo, Bayesian updates, Survival Analysis, Causal basics — turning security data into **decisions**._
[](https://github.com/security-decision-science/security-decision-science/actions/workflows/book.yml)
[](https://pypi.org/project/decision-security/)
[](https://github.com/security-decision-science/security-decision-science/actions/workflows/links.yml)
[](LICENSE)
[](https://www.linkedin.com/in/voiculaura/)
**Live docs:** https://security-decision-science.github.io/security-decision-science/
---
## What this is
A practical path for **decision science in security**:
- **Monte Carlo risk bands** (heavy tails, Poisson/lognormal)
- **Bayesian triage & calibration** (priors → likelihoods → decisions)
- **Survival / time-to-event** (KM/Weibull; time-to-exploit/patch)
- **Causal basics** (DAG intuition, confounding, quick checks)
Everything is free: **articles, notebooks, and a small playground app** powered by the companion library.
---
## Quick links
- **Docs (this site):** https://security-decision-science.github.io/security-decision-science/
- **Playground app:** https://github.com/security-decision-science/security-decision-labs
- **Library (pip):** https://github.com/security-decision-science/decision-security · PyPI → https://pypi.org/project/decision-security/
- **Blog (Medium):** https://medium.com/apropos-security
- **Contact:** LinkedIn (preferred)
---
## Part 1 — Foundations
These set up metrics & scaffolding reused in later modules.
1. **Research mindset for security decisions**
Decision statements, payoff/uncertainty, hypotheses/priors, assumptions log.
2. **From concepts to metrics**
Binary/count/rate/**time-to-event**, heavy tails, guardrails, sampling windows.
3. **Experiment designs you can actually run**
A/B, switchback, staggered; threats to validity; minimal “ship/no-ship” rule.
_Read them in the left sidebar, or start at the [landing page](https://security-decision-science.github.io/security-decision-science/)._
> Next: **Part 2** (Monte Carlo risk bands) → **Part 3** (Bayesian triage) → **Part 4** (Survival).
---
## Use the library (pip)
```bash
pip install --pre decision-security
```
```python
from decision_security.synth import sample
x = sample("poisson", 10, lam=1.2)
print(x)
```
The playground app (`security-decision-labs`) imports the same library so notebooks ↔ app stay consistent.
---
## Run the docs locally
```bash
# in this repo
python -m venv .book && source .book/bin/activate
python -m pip install -U pip jupyter-book
jupyter-book build docs
open docs/_build/html/index.html
```
Execution is off initially (`execute_notebooks: "off"` in `_config.yml`). It will be turned on later when examples are stable.
---
## Repo layout
```
docs/
_config.yml
_toc.yml
index.md
part1-01-research-mindset.md
part1-02-operationalization-metrics.md
part1-03-experimental-design-basics.md
.github/workflows/book.yml # builds & deploys Jupyter Book to GitHub Pages
```
---
## Contributing & issues
- Ideas, fixes, and typos: open an **Issue** or PR.
- For sensitive topics (no data, please), contact via **LinkedIn**.
---