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https://github.com/sempwn/overdose-model-intro

Introduction to Bayesian hierarchical model of overdoses
https://github.com/sempwn/overdose-model-intro

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Introduction to Bayesian hierarchical model of overdoses

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# overdose-model-intro

Introduction to Bayesian hierarchical model of opioid-related overdoses

## Background

![Model diagram](https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2468266718300446-gr1.jpg)

This repo provides a notebook in order to learn and develop a mathematical model describing a population at risk of an opioid overdose and intervention through the use of *take-home naloxone* (THN) kits.

For description of model see supplementary materials in [Irvine, Michael A., et al. *Distribution of take-home opioid antagonist kits during a synthetic opioid epidemic in British Columbia, Canada: a modelling study.* The Lancet Public Health 3.5 (2018): e218-e225.](https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667%2818%2930044-6)

## Getting started

These instructions will get you a copy of the notebook up and running on your local machine.

### Prerequisites

The easiest way to get up and running is to install [Anaconda](https://www.anaconda.com/download/_), which provides `python`, numerous scientific libraries as well as `jupyter`. Once [Anaconda](https://www.anaconda.com/download/) is installed, navigate to directory for this repository and run `jupyter` via the command line (using the example directory `/Projects/Tutorial/`):

```bash
cd /Projects/Tutorial/
jupyter notebook
```
You can also launch `jupyter` through the [Anaconda Navigator](https://www.anaconda.com/distribution/#feature-desktop-gui).

### Installing

The repository requires the library [pymc3](https://pymc3.readthedocs.io/en/latest/_) to run. To install open a terminal (can be done in a notebook session) and run the following command:

```bash
conda install -c conda-forge pymc3
```

For plotting install the package [seaborn](https://seaborn.pydata.org) using the following command

```bash
conda install -c anaconda seaborn
```

### Opening notebook

Once the jupyter session is running navigate to the notebook [model_introduction.ipynb](model_introduction.ipynb)

## License

This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the [LICENSE.md](LICENSE.md) file for details