https://github.com/shiffman/survivor-simulator

Experimental Season 31 Simulator
https://github.com/shiffman/survivor-simulator

Last synced: 26 days ago
JSON representation

Experimental Season 31 Simulator

• Host: GitHub
• URL: https://github.com/shiffman/survivor-simulator
• Owner: shiffman
• Created: 2015-05-09T13:09:36.000Z (over 9 years ago)
• Default Branch: main
• Last Pushed: 2022-05-06T13:04:56.000Z (over 2 years ago)
• Last Synced: 2024-04-16T08:56:38.389Z (7 months ago)
• Language: JavaScript
• Size: 496 KB
• Stars: 3
• Watchers: 3
• Forks: 2
• Open Issues: 6
• Metadata Files:
  • Readme: README.md

Awesome Lists containing this project

README

        
# Survivor Simulator

Can Survivor be quantified and simulated?

http://shiffman.github.io/survivor-simulator/

## To-do list 

* Create option to swap in other casts.

* Hidden Immunity idols (simulate hidden immunity idols)

* Alliances

   *  Each player has a probability of being aligned with (i.e. "voting with") every other player.

   *  Each player has a probability of voting against their alliance.

* Perceived threat level vs. actual threat level (make this a distinction)

* Ability to configure season

   * starting tribe (2 or 3 tribes)

   * random swaps

   * specify week of merge

* Simulate special "2nd vote" power?

* Add probabilities from [Survivor Probability Doc](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1toe9FmKVzk1D4amNJlFWYsQPVoZ8DuPVUzr9zkLgYpU/edit)

## Current status:

* Tribal immunity

    * Probability of a tribe winning immunity is tied to the sum of each player's "premerge" challenge rating.

* Individual immunity

    * Probability of an individual winning immunity is tied to each player's "postmerge" challenge rating. 

* Being voted out (pre-merge)

    * Your challenge skill makes you less likely.  Your likeability makes you less likely.

* Being voted out (post-merge)

    * Your challenge skill makes you more likely.  Your likeability makes you less likely until there are 6 left, then you are more likely.

* 2 tribes.

* Merge at 12.

* Jury of 9, final 3.

## Overall algorithm

1. Randomly make two tribes, 5 men and 5 women.

2. While there are greater than 12 players.

    * Pick a tribe to win immunity.

    * Pick a player to be voted out of losing tribe.

3. Merge to 1 tribe.

4. While there are greater than 3 players.

    * Pick a player to win immunity.

    * Pick a player to be voted out (cannot be immune player).

    * Each player voted out moves to jury.

5. Each jury member votes for a player in the final three.

6. Player in final 3 with most votes wins.

## Traits

1. Pre-merge challenge ability: you are less likely to be voted out pre-merge.

2. Post-merge challenge ability: you are more likely to be voted out post-merge.  Also when the game approaches the merge, your likelihood of being voted out increases.

3. Likeability: this generally makes you less likely to be voted out when the game begins and more likely to be voted out as the final three approaches.  You are more likely to get jury votes.

4. more to come. .  .?