https://github.com/davidar/deciban
https://github.com/davidar/deciban
Last synced: 5 months ago
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- Host: GitHub
- URL: https://github.com/davidar/deciban
- Owner: davidar
- Created: 2015-11-12T09:13:28.000Z (over 10 years ago)
- Default Branch: master
- Last Pushed: 2015-11-12T09:17:12.000Z (over 10 years ago)
- Last Synced: 2025-02-09T23:47:54.033Z (over 1 year ago)
- Size: 0 Bytes
- Stars: 3
- Watchers: 4
- Forks: 0
- Open Issues: 0
-
Metadata Files:
- Readme: README.md
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README
# deciban
The following table lists a number of rare events, arranged on a **deciban** scale. The deciban is a logarithmic unit — much like the decibel or the Richter scale — [introduced by Alan Turing](http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.04714) for expressing probabilities. It is a tenth of a **ban**, which is also known as the base-10 log-odds.
[](https://xkcd.com/795/)
Please note that these are only rough estimates for the purpose of providing intuition for the relative likelihood of various rare events. Many are based on population averages, and do not apply to you personally. As always, keep the above comic in mind ;)
| decibans | event |
| --------:| ----- |
| 0 | You flip a coin, it lands heads |
| -1 | |
| -2 | |
| -3 | |
| -4 | |
| -5 | You flip two coins, they're both heads |
| -6 | |
| -7 | |
| -8 | Flip three coins, all heads |
| -9 | |
| -10 | |
| -11 | |
| -12 | Flip four coins, all heads |
| -13 | |
| -14 | |
| -15 | Flip five coins, all heads |
| -16 | |
| -17 | |
| -18 | Flip six coins, all heads |
| -19 | |
| -20 | You will die in a road accident |
| -21 | Flip seven coins, all heads |
| -22 | You will die from a fall |
| -23 | |
| -24 | Flip eight coins, all heads |
| -25 | |
| -26 | |
| -27 | Flip nine coins, all heads |
| -28 | |
| -29 | |
| -30 | Flip ten coins, all heads |
| -31 | You will die in a fire |
| -32 | |
| -33 | |
| -34 | |
| -35 | You will die in a natural disaster |
| -36 | |
| -37 | Next year, an asteroid with destructive power larger than a H-bomb will strike the Earth |
| -38 | |
| -39 | |
| -40 | You will die of drowning |
| -41 | |
| -42 | |
| -43 | You will die in an air travel accident |
| -44 | |
| -45 | Flip 15 coins, all heads |
| -46 | |
| -47 | Next year, an asteroid impact will cause destruction on national scale |
| -48 | |
| -49 | You will be killed by lightning strike |
| -50 | You will be killed by a snake bite or a bee sting |
| -51 | You will be killed by an earthquake |
| -52 | |
| -53 | Next year, an asteroid impact will cause destruction on a European scale |
| -54 | |
| -55 | |
| -56 | |
| -57 | You will die in a fireworks accident |
| -58 | You're dealt a royal flush in a 5-card poker hand |
| -59 | Next year, an asteroid impact will leave many millions dead, and cause global effects |
| -60 | Flip 20 coins, all heads |
| -61 | Next year, you will be struck by lightning |
| -62 | |
| -63 | |
| -64 | |
| -65 | |
| -66 | |
| -67 | |
| -68 | |
| -69 | |
| -70 | |
| -71 | |
| -72 | Next year, you will be killed by a cow |
| -73 | Next year, an asteroid will kill billions, and cause global climate change |
| -74 | |
| -75 | Flip 25 coins, all heads |
| -76 | |
| -77 | |
| -78 | |
| -79 | |
| -80 | Next year, an asteroid will cause the extinction of the human race |
| -81 | Next year, you will be killed by a vending machine |
| -82 | |
| -83 | |
| -84 | Next year, you will be killed by a shark |
| -85 | You will die in a rollercoaster accident |
| -86 | |
| -87 | |
| -88 | |
| -89 | |
| -90 | Flip 30 coins, all heads |
| -91 | |
| -92 | |
| -93 | |
| -94 | |
| -95 | |
| -96 | |
| -97 | |
| -98 | |
| -99 | |
| -100 | |
| -101 | |
| -102 | |
| -103 | |
| -104 | A billion machines each generate a billion 256-bit hashes per second for 100 million years. There is an accidental collision |
| -105 | Flip 35 coins, all heads |
## sources
- http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/Natural_Disasters/impacts.htm
- http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Space_Engineering_Technology/NEO/Impact_consequences
- http://www.livescience.com/3780-odds-dying.html
- http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/odds.shtml
- http://www.asktheodds.com/death/roller-coaster-odds/
- https://web.archive.org/web/20120622140117/http://bookofodds.com/Accidents-Death/Accidental-Deaths/Articles/A0007-Sharks-or-Vending-Machines-Which-is-Deadlier
- http://tierneylab.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/31/dangerous-cows/?_r=0
- http://www.nsc.org/NSC%20Images_Corporate/odds-of-dying-graphic.jpg
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_attack