https://github.com/milankl/FlyingClimate

What goes up must come down again.
https://github.com/milankl/FlyingClimate

Last synced: 3 months ago
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What goes up must come down again.

• Host: GitHub
• URL: https://github.com/milankl/FlyingClimate
• Owner: milankl
• License: gpl-3.0
• Created: 2020-11-20T15:29:47.000Z (almost 4 years ago)
• Default Branch: main
• Last Pushed: 2021-11-12T11:32:02.000Z (almost 3 years ago)
• Last Synced: 2024-06-11T19:42:13.278Z (5 months ago)
• Language: Jupyter Notebook
• Homepage:
• Size: 8.08 MB
• Stars: 14
• Watchers: 2
• Forks: 1
• Open Issues: 0
• Metadata Files:
  • Readme: README.md
  • License: LICENSE

Awesome Lists containing this project

• open-sustainable-technology - FlyingClimate - Model the CO2 and non-CO2 effects like nitrogen oxide emissions and contrail formation to analyse aviation's total warming footprint. (Emissions / Emission Observation and Modeling)

README

        
# Quantifying aviation’s contribution to global warming

[![DOI](https://zenodo.org/badge/314593749.svg)](https://zenodo.org/badge/latestdoi/314593749)

Supplementary data and scripts for

M Klöwer, MR Allen, DS Lee, SR Proud, L Gallagher and A Skowron, 2021.

*Quantifying aviation’s contribution to global warming*,

**Environmental Research Letters**, accepted. Preprint [10.1002/essoar.10507359.1](https://www.essoar.org/doi/10.1002/essoar.10507359.1)

### Abstract

Growth in aviation contributes more to global warming than is generally appreciated because

of the mix of climate pollutants it generates. Here, we model the CO2 and non-CO2 effects

like nitrogen oxide emissions and contrail formation to analyse aviation’s total warming footprint.

Aviation contributed approximately 4% to observed human-induced global warming to date, despite

being responsible for only 2.4% of global annual emissions of CO2. Aviation is projected to cause

a total of about 0.1˚C of warming by 2050, half of it to date and the other half over the next

three decades, should aviation’s pre-COVID growth resume. The industry would then contribute a

6-17% share to the remaining 0.3-0.8˚C to not exceed 1.5-2˚C of global warming. Under this scenario,

the reduction due to COVID-19 to date is small and is projected to only delay aviation’s warming

contribution by about 5 years. But the leveraging impact of growth also represents an opportunity:

Aviation’s contribution to further warming would be immediately halted by either a sustained annual

2.5% decrease in air traffic under the existing fuel mix, or a transition to a 90% carbon-neutral

fuel mix by 2050.

---

### Contents

- Data can be found in [`/data`](https://github.com/milankl/FlyingClimate/tree/main/data)  

- The main analyis and plotting notebook is

[`/scripts/aviation_warming.ipynb`](https://github.com/milankl/FlyingClimate/blob/main/scripts/aviation_warming.ipynb).  

- Figure 1 is created in [`/scripts/euro_flights.ipynb`](https://github.com/milankl/FlyingClimate/blob/main/scripts/euro_flights.ipynb).